Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd15252e19717eb3265946a163966ed970bebc894af85eea1df604da584e693d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 2,681$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.01 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 50c | 1,258$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.8 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…67aabacked Yes | 65c | 928.86$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 33c | 658.6$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.61 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 485.35$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 450$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 4c | 414.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 389.51$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 41c | 369.84$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.07 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 29c | 350$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 309.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 299.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 41c | 297.15$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.57 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 291.8$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.66 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 64c | 253.58$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.97 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 219.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.58 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 48c | 215$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.79 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 64c | 213.62$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.58 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 193.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 176.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 171.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 71c | 155$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 34c | 146.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.04 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 141$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 71c | 137$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 43c | 131.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 61c | 131.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 40c | 128.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 67c | 128.13$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 126$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 125.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…541dbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 58c | 124$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 122.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 109.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 36c | 107.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 54c | 107.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 47c | 107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 42c | 104.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 102.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 99.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 90.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 16c | 86.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 85.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 57c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 46c | 81.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 80.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 80.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 59c | 70.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 69.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 65c | 69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 50c | 66.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 56c | 63.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 57c | 59.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 34c | 55.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 53c | 55.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 24c | 52.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 64c | 50.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 49.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 23c | 48.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 48.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 47.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 61c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b66…f51ebacked Yes | 38c | 46.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 27c | 46.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 60c | 45.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 45c | 44.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 51c | 43.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 42.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 28c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 75c | 40.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 34c | 40.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 40.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 30c | 39.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 35.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532e…d5b1backed Yes | 47c | 34.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 30c | 34.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 70c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 38c | 31.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.