South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-08-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd25322f6b8c37b43fbbb0118bd1a9fe9ce3c6feac36fcd82acdc42f87f074540
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed No | 48c | 51,406$24,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,730.94 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e25…d49ebacked Yes | 52c | 25,000$13,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,109.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 52c | 8,691$4,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,515.47 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 52c | 6,920$3,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,598.47 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599.99 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 48c | 4,241$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.09 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Yes | 53c | 2,830$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 53c | 2,804$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…5122backed Yes | 52c | 2,462$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 47c | 2,239$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.67 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443b…e8bbbacked Yes | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 35c | 1,998$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.89 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 47c | 1,132$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.4 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 47c | 1,006$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.18 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 47c | 987.7$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.48 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 51c | 855.89$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.44 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 49c | 688.61$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.34 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed No | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed No | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 52c | 576.91$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 275 | 49.1%135 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No | 47c | 499.93$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.96 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 52c | 480.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 273 | 49.5%135 W · 138 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 52c | 479.12$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.14 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 47c | 391.75$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.63 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 47c | 372.75$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.6 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 52c | 371$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 52c | 332$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.64 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 8c | 329.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…8a60backed No | 49c | 316.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Yes | 52c | 294.85$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.32 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Yes | 52c | 281.23$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.77 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Yes | 54c | 278.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.49 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 48c | 268$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 52c | 265.78$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.09 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 48c | 219.36$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.07 | 259 | 55.2%143 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…332fbacked No | 46c | 217.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 48c | 210.52$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.47 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 21c | 171.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Yes | 53c | 160.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 191 | 64.4%123 W · 68 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 136.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 253 | 45.1%114 W · 139 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 52c | 118.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Yes | 52c | 118.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 52c | 116.81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Yes | 52c | 113.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…6c35backed Yes | 41c | 109.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 52c | 108.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…ffc3backed Yes | 52c | 101.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 52c | 96.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 44c | 90.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 53c | 88.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 52c | 87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 52c | 87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 47c | 86.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 48c | 86.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…5478backed No | 47c | 74.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 47c | 72.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 52c | 71.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 48c | 63.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa187…aa65backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Yes | 52c | 51.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Yes | 52c | 49.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…69c8backed Yes | 41c | 41.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…564cbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 37c | 36.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked No | 48c | 35.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Yes | 53c | 35.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Yes | 52c | 33.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 264 | 65.9%174 W · 90 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…534abacked Yes | 52c | 33.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Yes | 53c | 31.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Yes | 53c | 28.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…8cdebacked Yes | 53c | 26.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…9591backed Yes | 53c | 25.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 54c | 24.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…6b95backed No | 52c | 23.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f0…810bbacked Yes | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…2602backed No | 48c | 22.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-08-08?this page
- Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-08-08?Yes won
- Will CA Tucumán vs. CA Sarmiento end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.