NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd25bc55cf491119497ff11c9b5312f06858f5df9295acb6ab1d91650b446cfae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Knicks, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 42c | 773$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.45 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Knicks | 57c | 760.24$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.01 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0f…30e6backed Knicks | 58c | 499.98$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 44c | 458$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7923…d78abacked Hawks | 41c | 454.98$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.44 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks | 42c | 287.77$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.91 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Knicks | 59c | 133.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Knicks | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Knicks | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Hawks | 45c | 87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Knicks | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks | 48c | 73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Knicks | 53c | 72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Knicks | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c0…e672backed Knicks | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Knicks | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Hawks | 45c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5c1dbacked Hawks | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Hawks | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Knicks | 57c | 35.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Knicks | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…1cddbacked Knicks | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Knicks | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Knicks | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed Knicks | 55c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Knicks | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Knicks | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Knicks vs. HawksKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.