NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89969470bc87cb8e19a74c55b16d8cbecc7c454833898a1a604b1d60ad3aa6dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0352…3292backed Under | 53c | 14,155$7,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,451.25 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 13,259$6,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,945.57 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 8,889$4,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,528.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Under | 49c | 6,602$3,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,235 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59f…d53cbacked Under | 52c | 2,568$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 2,395$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.19 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 54c | 1,591$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.74 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 51c | 1,421$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.71 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 51c | 1,396$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.92 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 1,375$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.63 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Under | 51c | 1,114$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.34 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Over | 47c | 1,073$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.79 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -11.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 995$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.98 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…e780backed Over | 53c | 971.48$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 902.79$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.48 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 501.88$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.9 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 46c | 499.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 412$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.69 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 53c | 246$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.62 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 47c | 199.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.68 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe666…14f5backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 94.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Under | 52c | 94.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 85.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 84.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Under | 52c | 76.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Over | 54c | 70.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Under | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Knicks vs. HawksKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.