NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61129daca64e978b97ed367e46dbad50fe8534c645a6e9484019ff15d59de8e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 50c | 69,000$34,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,500 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 50c | 34,323$17,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,145.83 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 27,323$13,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,781.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 49c | 11,615$5,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,869.91 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 48c | 9,730$4,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,059.39 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 9,084$4,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,720.57 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 9,000$4,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,679.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 52c | 5,570$2,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,673.47 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Under | 53c | 3,747$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 50c | 3,085$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.34 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf44…4040backed Over | 48c | 2,900$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 2,182$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98b5…e61fbacked Over | 56c | 2,073$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.47 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Over | 48c | 1,750$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,491$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.83 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Under | 52c | 571.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 48c | 562.5$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.5 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 45c | 299.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 46c | 187$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Over | 51c | 103.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Under | 50c | 94.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 46c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed Over | 54c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Over | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Over | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Over | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 47c | 28.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Over | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…7544backed Over | 48c | 23.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 46c | 22.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…407fbacked Over | 53c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Knicks vs. HawksKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 240.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 242.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 243.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 244.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.