NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Wizards: 1H Moneyline

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2dd84f2dee6addb65263b0ee2803cfd934648702397eaf470e934d84f2834d7

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Heat, Wizards
Resolved: Apr 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,427
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,513

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,427 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 5 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x23e2…dcf3backed Wizards	20c	906.68$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.7	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Heat	78c	564.56$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.85	796	50.9%405 W · 391 L	+63.2wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6794…0a8bbacked Wizards	18c	129.01$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.78	42	21.4%9 W · 33 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacf9…626dbacked Wizards	19c	98.85$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.78	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb510…762bbacked Heat	79c	19.2$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.03	58	48.3%28 W · 30 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Wizards: 1H Moneyline

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event