NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 246.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aea78161dc3073ff7def6dd5c598d2ac0f21f9c476208d7ef2d971fa372318b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 58c | 13,764$7,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,770.75 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 37c | 5,244$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.35 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe169…4653backed Under | 56c | 4,243$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,376.25 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 42c | 1,093$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.72 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 1,069$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 1,003$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 44c | 909.44$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.21 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 59c | 855.95$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.15 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 630.59$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.37 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1759…49e5backed Under | 52c | 567.65$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Under | 70c | 560.91$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.92 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 32c | 491.83$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.44 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 58c | 491.18$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.93 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 58c | 489.09$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.58 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 34c | 388$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 58c | 381.7$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.45 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 59c | 379.75$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.65 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 59c | 366.82$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.89 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 45c | 307.39$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.58 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 54c | 281.64$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.89 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2a…30edbacked Under | 68c | 250.08$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.61 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -9.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 41c | 191.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 46c | 191.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 40c | 177.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 31c | 176.91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.62 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 50c | 170.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 62c | 151.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549d…35b9backed Over | 45c | 119.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 58c | 119.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 54c | 114.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 520 | 53.3%277 W · 243 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 47c | 101.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e6…74a9backed Under | 52c | 73.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…7f2ebacked Over | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 48c | 66.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd5…0cd2backed Under | 52c | 56.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03df…1dbabacked Over | 50c | 50.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…057fbacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 60c | 48.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b96…7701backed Under | 52c | 48.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6313…a6bdbacked Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 64c | 48.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 376 | 47.3%178 W · 198 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 40c | 45.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Under | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 58c | 41.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 63c | 41.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 72c | 41.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 62c | 40.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…a3e9backed Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…44dcbacked Over | 58c | 38.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 44c | 38.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 387 | 36.4%141 W · 246 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 58c | 37.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 319 | 53%169 W · 150 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…bbf6backed Over | 43c | 36.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 57c | 34.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Over | 61c | 32.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…3170backed Over | 50c | 31.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 43c | 29.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 52c | 29.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 59c | 24.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…3fb1backed Over | 46c | 23.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…f450backed Under | 52c | 22.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 69c | 21.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 68c | 20.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 275 | 53.5%147 W · 128 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…1013backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 58c | 19.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 64c | 18.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 56c | 18.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 246.5this page
- Heat vs. WizardsHeat won
- Heat vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 125.5Under won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Over won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Over won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 242.5Over won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 243.5Over won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 245.5Over won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 248.5Over won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 249.5Over won
- Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 252.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-15.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-16.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-17.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-18.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-19.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-20.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-23.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.