TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-17.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$130,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$135,971

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,217 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93ab…9723backed Heat45c38,998$17,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,578.960351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Wizards56c20,749$11,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,594.8966248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Heat45c6,018$2,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,310.3817055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Wizards56c5,612$3,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,148.241,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Wizards56c5,370$3,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,015.361,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Heat52c4,691$2,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,262.9620843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Wizards55c4,680$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.7290650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Heat46c4,347$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.682,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Wizards55c4,104$2,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,252.9363746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Heat49c3,725$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,884.882,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Wizards49c3,703$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,827.841,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Wizards54c3,386$1,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,827.011,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards53c3,291$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.229,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Wizards51c3,101$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.4937355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Heat45c2,653$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.511,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Wizards54c2,307$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.714842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Wizards57c2,126$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.6429849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Wizards54c1,999$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.625641.4%106 W · 150 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Wizards55c1,975$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.3258953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Heat45c1,887$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.3913563%85 W · 50 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Wizards45c1,856$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.011,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Heat45c1,840$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.5527455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Heat59c1,649$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.3743269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Heat44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.9979650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat44c1,228$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.846,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Heat55c1,206$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.082,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Heat49c1,100$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56145146.1%208 W · 243 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Heat49c1,095$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.153,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wizards45c1,069$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.158,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Wizards55c884.55$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.537647.3%178 W · 198 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Wizards55c884.55$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.519254.7%105 W · 87 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Wizards54c878.71$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.2671654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Heat64c812.43$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.23,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Heat55c798.86$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.4952230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Wizards55c707.64$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.265349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Wizards54c652.21$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.5441753.2%222 W · 195 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba4b…cc06backed Wizards51c571.09$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.181650%8 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Wizards55c557.59$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.054,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6abc…bd1bbacked Heat53c550.7$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.1714549%71 W · 74 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Wizards53c550.31$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.661,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Heat45c538.94$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.424465.9%29 W · 15 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Wizards47c531.65$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.515,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Wizards55c530.29$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.661,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Wizards57c512.74$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.2632450.3%163 W · 161 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Wizards55c499.9$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.942,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Heat55c449.47$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.255740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Wizards55c442.27$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.2519258.3%112 W · 80 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Wizards26c441.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.791,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Heat46c401.82$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.933,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Wizards52c371.24$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.051,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Wizards55c358.54$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.7622047.3%104 W · 116 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Wizards56c356.76$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2261151.4%314 W · 297 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Wizards55c353.82$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.636248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Heat45c353.4$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.5330453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Heat45c347.43$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.5457650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Wizards52c344.6$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.9944551.2%228 W · 217 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Wizards57c337.79$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.541,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Heat62c314.15$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.41,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Wizards55c304.64$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5535052.6%184 W · 166 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ba…0bc3backed Heat45c249.57$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.3915650.6%79 W · 77 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked Heat46c227.45$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.9619659.7%117 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfcd8…9908backed Heat45c226.45$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.3622552.4%118 W · 107 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Wizards57c216.96$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6618648.9%91 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Wizards50c215.6$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3289850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3aec…65fabacked Wizards49c213.55$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.641241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Heat45c209.83$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5893148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Wizards52c205.89$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0726553.2%141 W · 124 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3735…3d9dbacked Heat45c197.27$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.510737.4%40 W · 67 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3829…89a9backed Wizards32c195.69$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Wizards51c190.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0647357.9%274 W · 199 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3918…b552backed Heat51c190.31$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2514046.4%65 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f73…6d1cbacked Wizards51c190.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.061560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Heat45c189.95$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.6492750.6%469 W · 458 L-1.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Wizards55c186.15$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0753348.4%258 W · 275 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Wizards51c177.55$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2624849.6%123 W · 125 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90df…a209backed Wizards55c176.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.329848%143 W · 155 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Heat65c174$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1736949.6%183 W · 186 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcdd…6d55backed Wizards57c170.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4223650.8%120 W · 116 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Heat63c167.3$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.371,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46dc…92c3backed Heat49c155.07$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.399641.7%40 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x273d…1123backed Heat49c152.83$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Heat46c145.38$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0889048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94c4…2a41backed Heat46c143.58$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6622953.3%122 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Heat45c135.53$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1831354.6%171 W · 142 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Heat45c132.15$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.6823549.4%116 W · 119 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Heat47c131.35$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.011,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Wizards46c131.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0840750.6%206 W · 201 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc75…5431backed Wizards46c131.22$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.073348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ed0…b5b8backed Wizards46c131.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.362240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4940…430dbacked Wizards46c131.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.36633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b11…58c9backed Wizards46c130.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.083647.2%17 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc1c…debbbacked Heat45c125.73$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8520443.6%89 W · 115 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Wizards50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd226…38b4backed Wizards55c118$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.939448.7%192 W · 202 L-1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaff…eaf6backed Heat46c113.92$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9612160.3%73 W · 48 L+13.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Wizards42c104.24$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.911,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Wizards46c101.6$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7449247.2%232 W · 260 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa804…bdc1backed Heat49c96.94$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.447237.5%27 W · 45 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-20.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Heat48c96.88$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3861638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Heat51c95.16$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6352461.6%323 W · 201 L-0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.