NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-20.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x378499f15308641db88b26745ea3daffd4d438a413a48d6aa4b0dedfb5c6c38f

Rebuilt 21 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Heat, Wizards
Resolved: Apr 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,623
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,592

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,623 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Heat	49c	943.2$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$481.42	522	30.3%158 W · 364 L	+20.4wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Wizards	51c	912.95$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.62	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Heat	64c	371.86$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.69	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Wizards	35c	288.3$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.91	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Heat	60c	217.57$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.95	1,317	47.8%629 W · 688 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Wizards	47c	206$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.82	311	51.1%159 W · 152 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Heat	51c	173.48$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.42	898	50.9%457 W · 441 L	+19.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Wizards	46c	166.48$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.38	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Wizards	52c	99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.48	454	45.2%205 W · 249 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab2a…30edbacked Wizards	44c	96.64$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.52	67	37.3%25 W · 42 L	-9.5wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Heat	63c	66.89$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.84	369	49.6%183 W · 186 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Wizards	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	52	50%26 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Heat	47c	42.13$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.33	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1e…522fbacked Wizards	53c	40.94$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.7	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Heat	59c	33.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.72	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cad…0303backed Heat	75c	31.07$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.77	110	59.1%65 W · 45 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Wizards	44c	22.76$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	62	74.2%46 W · 16 L	+11.3wins	+0.18per pick	56cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-20.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event