Fifa International · resolved market
Jordan to score first vs. Austria?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd438eba9c3b94e127ebb58eaba60625352c10f2e4cf89f4032ddb9737efadafa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 5,223$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 5,063$3,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.96 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 23c | 3,710$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.44 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 78c | 2,700$2,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.49 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,547$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.6 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 23c | 1,238$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.05 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 22c | 1,136$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 21c | 738.16$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.63 | 368 | 38.6%142 W · 226 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 499.97$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 199 | 39.7%79 W · 120 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 483.45$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 465.48$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…4744backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 78c | 409.97$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 79c | 403$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 402.83$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 484 | 38.2%185 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 77c | 292.35$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…ebd1backed Yes | 21c | 281.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 22c | 240.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +8.8wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 197.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 76c | 185.66$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 19c | 183.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 455 | 28.4%129 W · 326 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed No | 78c | 176.05$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 119.23$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 28.3%34 W · 86 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a13…588fbacked Yes | 25c | 99.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463c…6347backed Yes | 24c | 95.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…0f21backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed Yes | 23c | 89.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 285 | 45.6%130 W · 155 L | -10.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…c3b7backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed No | 78c | 33.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed No | 77c | 29.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 548 | 59.5%326 W · 222 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed No | 78c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4756…d77abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jordan to score first vs. Austria?this page
- Austria to score first vs. Jordan?Yes won
- Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.