World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6219a281a0b1b80fe1df7a61ae89aa5bfffbe977c3b7b3793a2619a639958fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 641.1$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.23 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 283.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 76c | 278.5$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 26c | 269.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 246.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 78c | 245.79$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 225.69$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 27c | 214.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 206.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 26c | 194.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 10c | 186.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 173.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 29c | 167.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 19c | 156.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 149.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 19c | 147.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 26c | 145$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 142$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 26c | 131.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 31c | 129.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 9c | 129$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 26c | 127.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…a1a5backed No | 80c | 125.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 124.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 124.17$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 19c | 118.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 118$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 117.87$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 11c | 116$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 113.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 113.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 27c | 112.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 111.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 103.87$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 102$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 101.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +494.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 99.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8282backed Yes | 25c | 98.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked Yes | 28c | 94.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 88.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 87.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 84.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 71c | 77.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 77.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 76.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 70c | 75.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c0…befdbacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 27c | 71.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -70%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 71.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 70c | 67.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 19c | 67.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 76c | 66.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…a41ebacked Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 28c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 28c | 61.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 60.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 72c | 60.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 27c | 59.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 20c | 57.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 55.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…3f36backed Yes | 21c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 74c | 53.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 52.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 52.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 50.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 29c | 47.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 29c | 45.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 45.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 76c | 44.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 43.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 24c | 42.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 39.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 32.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 26.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 25.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.