World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08c7574e3b508086d9854475752485cd5afd3b91259467065097b54502154670
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 32c | 2,287$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.45 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 14c | 905.62$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.51 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 39c | 727.22$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.57 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 690.1$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.33 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 22c | 499.96$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +285.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 459.31$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.07 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 27c | 346.61$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.81 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 339.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.19 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 331.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.01 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 302.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.39 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…0872backed No | 77c | 279.82$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 278.83$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.76 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 33c | 271.49$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.81 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 257.34$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.81 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 27c | 253$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.8 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71a9…da0abacked No | 79c | 251.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 31c | 247.35$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.84 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 233.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee49…155ebacked No | 73c | 233.15$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.16 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 224.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed No | 63c | 202.59$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 191.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.09 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 177.12$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.32 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 54c | 173.32$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 170.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.62 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 161.75$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.77 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 72c | 147.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 139.66$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.41 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 29c | 138.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 20c | 138.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.03 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…717bbacked No | 80c | 138.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 134.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.81 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 131.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 66c | 129.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 39c | 124.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 123.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 15c | 121.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 14c | 117.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.79 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 25c | 116.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 28c | 114.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 25c | 110$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.58 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 24c | 102.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked No | 69c | 100.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 21c | 97.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8282backed Yes | 20c | 96.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 40c | 95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 64c | 90.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed No | 70c | 88.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 13c | 87.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 86.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed Yes | 20c | 81.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 49cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 20c | 81.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 14c | 78.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +247.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee6…22e9backed No | 63c | 71.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6423…9a53backed Yes | 25c | 70.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…651fbacked No | 43c | 70.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 22c | 69.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 21c | 68.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 22c | 66.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…b2eebacked Yes | 24c | 63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes | 41c | 60.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 29c | 58.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 22c | 58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed Yes | 40c | 53.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…264fbacked No | 77c | 51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 33c | 50.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 50.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 45.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 44.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9d…6703backed No | 60c | 41.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 39c | 39.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 39.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 58c | 37.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 73c | 36.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 74c | 35.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 79c | 32.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 31.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7b…332dbacked No | 72c | 31.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 31.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 74c | 31.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3d7dbacked No | 69c | 29.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 77c | 26.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 71c | 25.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.