TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

CS: Aurora vs Liquid

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Liquidof Aurora, Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$140,617
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$159,433

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,617 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3993…cdedbacked Liquid41c32,360$13,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,243.5983652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a05…5c62backed Liquid37c29,883$11,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,687.034639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Aurora68c25,222$17,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,150.9521645.4%98 W · 118 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked Aurora67c15,596$10,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,515.9716448.2%79 W · 85 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Liquid30c10,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,999.9621424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733b…7260backed Aurora70c7,094$4,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,965.492259.1%13 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick72cpaid-20.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Liquid30c6,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.997646.1%35 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Liquid30c5,282$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,699.9923852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd32a…504cbacked Aurora70c5,075$3,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,566.592568%17 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Liquid43c4,495$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,566.5913954.7%76 W · 63 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f0…60dabacked Liquid61c4,438$2,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.821145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3b…3f0abacked Aurora71c4,236$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00012654.8%69 W · 57 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fa0…253cbacked Aurora46c3,732$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.0411656.9%66 W · 50 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b16…0dc4backed Aurora56c3,512$1,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,965.965459.3%32 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Aurora10c3,500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.92133.3%7 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Aurora70c3,333$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.3319660.7%119 W · 77 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Liquid43c3,172$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.1420855.3%115 W · 93 L+18.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1dbb…050cbacked Aurora56c2,072$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.248956.2%50 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a0…dab5backed Aurora2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Aurora69c2,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.9918650%93 W · 93 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Liquid37c1,955$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.6822056.4%124 W · 96 L+19.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora55c1,690$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.5960953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Aurora69c1,580$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.5327950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…c82fbacked Aurora49c1,534$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.724835.4%17 W · 31 L-8.6wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-30.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Aurora60c1,392$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.373458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf66a…9157backed Aurora74c1,355$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00310238.2%39 W · 63 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x732b…3b02backed Aurora72c1,353$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.98955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Aurora46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46013050%65 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e67…91b0backed Aurora50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002532%8 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8206…7cacbacked Aurora49c912.58$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.743721.6%8 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked Liquid57c901.75$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.7524440.6%99 W · 145 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Liquid37c862.81$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.527345.8%125 W · 148 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3911…30f3backed Liquid42c830.23$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.2326251.1%134 W · 128 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Liquid35c802.81$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.581,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Aurora70c798$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.612131.4%38 W · 83 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora38c736.01$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.711,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Aurora44c732.5$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.285,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215d…ba6dbacked Aurora71c704.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011847.5%56 W · 62 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Liquid49c685.47$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.5921251.4%109 W · 103 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Aurora70c672.86$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47185446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f1c…335abacked Aurora46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Aurora71c600$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42646340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Aurora65c582.14$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3802850%14 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdce3…eda0backed Aurora53c572.04$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.188645.3%39 W · 47 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Aurora69c500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34528351.9%147 W · 136 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f64…5fdcbacked Aurora70c500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…8ab1backed Aurora74c472.58$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.714866.7%32 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7373…3964backed Liquid29c445$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.513353.4%71 W · 62 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe782…e7d9backed Aurora70c435$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.51735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed51…eb3bbacked Aurora46c433.21$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.281513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.31per pick44cpaid-77%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1caf…7e6abacked Aurora45c400$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1812010%2 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-80.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8604…bbcabacked Liquid21c388.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.32520%5 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Liquid29c350$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.536751%187 W · 180 L-15.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x415c…e407backed Liquid30c350$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2452142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Liquid55c313.74$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.8210043%43 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefab…a304backed Aurora44c310$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.44332.6%14 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf671…3dd7backed Aurora39c304.08$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11923351.5%120 W · 113 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Aurora72c300$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21675450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb09…0f04backed Aurora48c287.44$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.2413223.5%31 W · 101 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Aurora70c285.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026563%167 W · 98 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa61d…df1abacked Aurora71c281.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016649.4%82 W · 84 L-15.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Aurora62c280.22$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17573658.2%428 W · 308 L-22.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16f0…a28dbacked Aurora12c280.11$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.295565.5%36 W · 19 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Liquid30c269.99$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.9960853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6777…2612backed Aurora46c230$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.811030.9%34 W · 76 L-11.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf735…b074backed Aurora70c215$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.5366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf97…beb5backed Liquid37c208.57$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.572937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc5ec…18f4backed Liquid53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a68…6525backed Liquid31c188$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.729215.2%14 W · 78 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-54.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Liquid54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1968753.9%370 W · 317 L-21.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40d5…bfe9backed Aurora65c180$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11763345.2%286 W · 347 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Aurora70c178.57$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12523454.7%128 W · 106 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9823…02dbbacked Aurora36c163.39$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7547055.7%262 W · 208 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc151…2501backed Liquid32c156.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.256456.3%36 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcd62…222cbacked Aurora70c148$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a57…3e7bbacked Liquid31c145.16$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc5…53c3backed Aurora70c145$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.54252.4%22 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2063…1eedbacked Aurora70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007659.2%45 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38ce…5431backed Aurora70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017462.1%108 W · 66 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a12…e633backed Aurora71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030039.7%119 W · 181 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ec…f816backed Aurora71c139.37$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.952045%9 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-21%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Liquid24c131.58$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Aurora76c131.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033456.6%189 W · 145 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ea…6254backed Aurora57c130.23$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc759…51edbacked Aurora39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508842%37 W · 51 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe7f…9fecbacked Aurora49c114.29$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0d…59d0backed Liquid32c103.13$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.131060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+82.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd053…3202backed Liquid27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735738.6%22 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Liquid24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7613235.6%47 W · 85 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed Liquid33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676240.3%25 W · 37 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcda0…a51abacked Aurora70c90.51$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.365461.1%33 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed Aurora70c78.44$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9116050%80 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28a3…79f9backed Aurora69c72.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0312843%55 W · 73 L-13.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x817a…544abacked Aurora69c72.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick72cpaid-68.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Aurora70c70$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4942149.6%209 W · 212 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3240…9172backed Aurora69c69.25$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.582152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a76…51b7backed Aurora70c57.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4024250.8%123 W · 119 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Aurora70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358155.6%45 W · 36 L-9.7wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-16.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Aurora70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed Aurora40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013850%69 W · 69 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.