Dota2 · resolved market
Team Liquid vs LGD Gaming: Draw (1-1)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7b6dcbabd49c90689cf4bb91a49cc636055e6916257d2ba03a507322b01988c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Yes | 60c | 17,989$10,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,118.28 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…9348backed No | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 3,792$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.39 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 34c | 3,000$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.01 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 6c | 2,258$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.47 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…9a43backed Yes | 50c | 1,890$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…789bbacked No | 49c | 1,848$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.77 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 35c | 1,808$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…f24abacked Yes | 50c | 1,634$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.26 | 503 | 47.1%237 W · 266 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed No | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 1,440$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.86 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…869ebacked No | 5c | 1,383$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed Yes | 54c | 1,316$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.62 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 2c | 1,234$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 25c | 907.7$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.5 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x792c…d2ecbacked Yes | 52c | 550$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 21c | 486$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 38c | 412.63$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…474ebacked No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 5c | 395.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 13c | 333.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 7c | 330.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed No | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9a…d10fbacked No | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 10c | 287.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…6408backed No | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 6c | 247.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 25c | 230$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…97e1backed No | 25c | 220$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b39…1f68backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf9…ad6ebacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5abe…d360backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8206…4826backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…7eb9backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…60f0backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…0ac2backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…4e30backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fe…359dbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…d485backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Yes | 49c | 199.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 51c | 198$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 177.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 172.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked No | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…0bedbacked No | 50c | 157$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed No | 34c | 155.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked No | 34c | 125.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 34c | 121.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…90b2backed No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed No | 24c | 114.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f3…cf28backed No | 35c | 108.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a03…0af5backed Yes | 72c | 107.82$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 250 | 47.6%119 W · 131 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…88e5backed Yes | 50c | 93.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 36c | 91.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 28c | 86.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed No | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12ee…0439backed No | 48c | 79.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Yes | 51c | 78.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked Yes | 51c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…c6efbacked No | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 49c | 48.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fb…9d50backed Yes | 52c | 48.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed Yes | 51c | 47.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…ffeabacked No | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +7.6wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked No | 52c | 41.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked No | 38c | 39.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 49c | 39.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 49c | 39.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…1071backed Yes | 50c | 38.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…f5d4backed Yes | 52c | 37.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…a618backed Yes | 52c | 37.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 52c | 36.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 52c | 25.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…7a7bbacked Yes | 63c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Team Liquid vs LGD Gaming: Draw (1-1)?this page
- LGD Gaming to win 2-0?No won
- Team Liquid to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.