South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Santos FC vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7d740a96ddbf25ec3466165f61202b5a281ed9036a32027a7bd5107beea8cf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Yes | 47c | 8,672$4,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,589.2 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 51c | 2,639$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.18 | 2,376 | 34.7%824 W · 1,552 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 39c | 2,349$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.29 | 244 | 37.3%91 W · 153 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 32c | 2,100$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.47 | 389 | 39.6%154 W · 235 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 59c | 2,000$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.04 | 286 | 34.6%99 W · 187 L | -16.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 28c | 1,705$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.88 | 5,831 | 45.4%2,647 W · 3,184 L | +99.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 52c | 1,662$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.89 | 1,559 | 45.1%703 W · 856 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Yes | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.63 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…0a9bbacked Yes | 52c | 1,346$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.15 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked No | 12c | 1,220$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.23 | 107 | 18.7%20 W · 87 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 41c | 1,173$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.99 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 16c | 1,091$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.43 | 595 | 39.7%236 W · 359 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 110 | 64.5%71 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 58c | 996.53$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.56 | 2,608 | 39.3%1,024 W · 1,584 L | -29.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 19c | 809.31$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.76 | 542 | 45.4%246 W · 296 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 696.74$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.55 | 2,015 | 51.4%1,036 W · 979 L | +44.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 658.25$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.19 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed No | 54c | 621.82$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.59 | 207 | 36.7%76 W · 131 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 17c | 548.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 505 | 46.7%236 W · 269 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674b…8284backed No | 75c | 515.81$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…ec0fbacked Yes | 52c | 500.15$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 24c | 497.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.87 | 524 | 43.3%227 W · 297 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked No | 15c | 434$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 54c | 397.48$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.29 | 934 | 45.1%421 W · 513 L | -28.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked No | 5c | 342$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 45c | 340.15$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.32 | 343 | 41.1%141 W · 202 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 65c | 323.85$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.29 | 1,393 | 52.6%733 W · 660 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 53c | 300$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 278 | 42.4%118 W · 160 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 7c | 291.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 48c | 290.22$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.89 | 1,323 | 42.8%566 W · 757 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 54c | 272.2$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.36 | 930 | 46.3%431 W · 499 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…7337backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 36c | 266.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.96 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked No | 52c | 239.09$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.03 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 34c | 237.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 53c | 225$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 52c | 221.24$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.07 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…7974backed No | 18c | 218.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 53c | 213.03$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.57 | 240 | 45%108 W · 132 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…ba95backed No | 52c | 205.25$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.45 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 54c | 198$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 55c | 186$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 1,055 | 49.3%520 W · 535 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed No | 72c | 169.93$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.74 | 176 | 42%74 W · 102 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…01e5backed Yes | 31c | 159.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 51c | 149.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 44c | 148.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 1,272 | 56.1%713 W · 559 L | +72.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 48c | 147.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 1,339 | 56.9%762 W · 577 L | +55.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 63c | 138$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 1,466 | 56.8%833 W · 633 L | +56.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 35c | 125.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…d839backed Yes | 34c | 123.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 33c | 120.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.88 | 229 | 33.6%77 W · 152 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e93…80d6backed No | 52c | 113.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1b…7217backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc28c…6fb2backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ab…eefdbacked Yes | 32c | 93.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked No | 12c | 91.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 93 | 25.8%24 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 24c | 77.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 450 | 46.2%208 W · 242 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 53c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 26c | 70.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 2,655 | 54.2%1,440 W · 1,215 L | +27.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 53c | 70.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…490ebacked Yes | 74c | 67.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…9ce5backed Yes | 27c | 60.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39f9…fcc3backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 203 | 64.5%131 W · 72 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 875 | 21.3%186 W · 689 L | -83.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…736ebacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 36c | 38.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 54c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,511 | 46.1%697 W · 814 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 298 | 48%143 W · 155 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…7bd0backed No | 53c | 21.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 151 | 41.1%62 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Santos FC vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-08-23?No won
- Will Santos FC win on 2026-08-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.