TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Karmine Corpof Karmine Corp, Eternal Fire
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$199,281
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,281 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x65c1…2988backed Eternal Fire58c26,761$15,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,521.2925554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Eternal Fire61c25,393$15,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,546.7652155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c3f…75cfbacked Eternal Fire58c24,561$14,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,263.0413651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Karmine Corp40c20,000$8,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,9255358.5%31 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Eternal Fire62c18,864$11,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,603.7978162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Karmine Corp42c15,000$6,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,707.6928955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked Karmine Corp53c10,642$5,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,012.0610863%68 W · 40 L+15.4wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+35.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Karmine Corp42c7,000$2,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,08519860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed Karmine Corp39c5,202$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,165.244438.6%17 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Karmine Corp43c5,090$2,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,901.3933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x249a…52e5backed Karmine Corp38c4,143$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,583.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Karmine Corp38c4,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4803650%18 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Karmine Corp39c3,590$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,188.6893148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Karmine Corp54c2,675$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.2377744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed Karmine Corp39c2,589$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.64742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Karmine Corp38c2,101$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.0631153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Karmine Corp37c2,072$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.384348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Eternal Fire29c2,032$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.2332245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Karmine Corp37c1,780$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.4517353.8%93 W · 80 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16af…2cf0backed Karmine Corp37c1,684$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Karmine Corp41c1,500$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.0411255.4%62 W · 50 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Karmine Corp41c1,500$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88528548.4%138 W · 147 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Karmine Corp40c1,500$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9009443.6%41 W · 53 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12f0…6e95backed Eternal Fire53c1,500$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.671963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Karmine Corp42c1,327$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.936946.4%32 W · 37 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed Karmine Corp38c1,315$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.6516950.9%86 W · 83 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Eternal Fire70c1,306$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.761637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Karmine Corp37c1,250$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.4914032.9%46 W · 94 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc86…4597backed Eternal Fire62c1,111$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Eternal Fire59c1,100$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.57445.9%34 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Karmine Corp40c1,100$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66226450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Eternal Fire40c1,043$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.551,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed Eternal Fire60c1,003$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60023151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Karmine Corp62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3802050%10 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Karmine Corp39c1,000$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.3324846%114 W · 134 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Karmine Corp41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59016952.1%88 W · 81 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Karmine Corp36c935.08$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.452138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Karmine Corp46c932.57$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.9919240.1%77 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Karmine Corp38c924.63$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.211050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Karmine Corp52c895.77$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.317044.3%31 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Eternal Fire51c863.76$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.751,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe79…296fbacked Eternal Fire47c852.66$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.61533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Eternal Fire23c807.98$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18214534.5%50 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Karmine Corp41c787.73$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.6119337.8%73 W · 120 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fec…7d1cbacked Eternal Fire52c769$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.621346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Eternal Fire55c717.18$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.881,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9438…e019backed Karmine Corp42c700$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4063357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Karmine Corp42c699.45$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.9336138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Karmine Corp43c697.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.674252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c48…eba9backed Eternal Fire59c678$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.027045.7%32 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Karmine Corp76c648.43$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.941,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6201…622cbacked Eternal Fire3c627.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0083…80fdbacked Eternal Fire15c625.01$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.752619.2%5 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-62.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Karmine Corp40c625$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37529733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked Karmine Corp41c601.4$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.83475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+73.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e56…8243backed Karmine Corp43c600$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+53.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Eternal Fire13c549.98$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Karmine Corp43c527.91$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.913770.3%26 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Eternal Fire48c523.12$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.6935331.2%110 W · 243 L-29.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Karmine Corp50c511.25$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.381,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb92a…f51cbacked Karmine Corp41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2951040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9734…bfd8backed Eternal Fire59c498.29$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.9919257.8%111 W · 81 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7268…7e00backed Eternal Fire63c476.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Karmine Corp43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.122944.8%13 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Karmine Corp38c464.99$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.623423.5%8 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-45.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb003…d62dbacked Eternal Fire58c450$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2612035%7 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Karmine Corp40c449.82$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.898646.5%40 W · 46 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed Eternal Fire42c448.11$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9933346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Karmine Corp43c433$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.813743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Karmine Corp42c431.99$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.556762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Eternal Fire45c425.46$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.545250%226 W · 226 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Eternal Fire60c422.03$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.641,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Karmine Corp39c410$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.123447%110 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Eternal Fire56c400$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22419656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Eternal Fire58c400$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23286747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Karmine Corp38c400$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24825843%111 W · 147 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a31…388cbacked Karmine Corp38c400$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Eternal Fire67c397.54$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.1654342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Eternal Fire60c379.33$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.123836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Eternal Fire54c372.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009742.3%41 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Karmine Corp42c347.58$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.5825336.4%92 W · 161 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x690d…70adbacked Karmine Corp51c337.31$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Karmine Corp38c330.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.616345.4%74 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffd8…1faabacked Eternal Fire63c311.95$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.531942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Eternal Fire52c309.64$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.1636648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60cd…3e7ebacked Eternal Fire44c298$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.788246.3%38 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked Eternal Fire20c291.5$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Karmine Corp42c289.74$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.0525556.1%143 W · 112 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf83…915dbacked Karmine Corp46c286.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Karmine Corp35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.714045%18 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Eternal Fire63c285.71$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18034253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9227…e497backed Karmine Corp47c278.71$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.691225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Eternal Fire60c278.33$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.188934.8%31 W · 58 L-11.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa1ee…0267backed Eternal Fire53c277.7$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.7410655.7%59 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked Eternal Fire57c269.99$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.93148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Karmine Corp61c251.33$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.357151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ee6…07cabacked Eternal Fire67c250.03$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5215160.3%91 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Karmine Corp52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12023644.9%106 W · 130 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed Karmine Corp40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1506437.5%24 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Karmine Corp69c246.46$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8641537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.