TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
shimmerof Atrix Esports, shimmer
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,000
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$128,372

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,000 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked shimmer67c9,647$6,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,163.45,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked shimmer70c6,863$4,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.5992456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed shimmer68c3,794$2,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.0321953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e5…519dbacked shimmer74c3,343$2,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.926972.5%50 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+61.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Atrix Esports46c3,176$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.141,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x55db…8db6backed Atrix Esports31c2,803$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.031752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Atrix Esports30c2,644$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.791,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed shimmer70c2,086$1,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.722,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Atrix Esports35c1,828$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.042,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3d…13dabacked Atrix Esports22c1,671$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.719732%31 W · 66 L-11.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Atrix Esports31c1,664$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.32,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4702…5d04backed Atrix Esports32c1,533$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked Atrix Esports31c1,381$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.7627940.5%113 W · 166 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Atrix Esports32c1,297$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42040449.8%201 W · 203 L+1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed Atrix Esports31c1,278$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.577351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Atrix Esports29c1,205$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.4338841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Atrix Esports37c1,137$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.182,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Atrix Esports28c1,112$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.564,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed shimmer57c1,112$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.216,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed shimmer57c1,065$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46355039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x822b…61fdbacked Atrix Esports40c1,061$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.563046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed shimmer60c1,040$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.152,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Atrix Esports40c1,034$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.9625344.3%112 W · 141 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a9…e35abacked Atrix Esports69c1,015$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.721931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked shimmer71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2901,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Atrix Esports31c987.7$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.9844343.3%192 W · 251 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4378…1bdebacked Atrix Esports42c957.48$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5779…54adbacked Atrix Esports33c897.42$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004158.5%24 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed shimmer17c871.55$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.935,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc315…a989backed Atrix Esports31c836.16$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.2714322.4%32 W · 111 L-10.2wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Atrix Esports68c800.05$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.6457641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Atrix Esports32c726.74$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.9435947.9%172 W · 187 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Atrix Esports41c720.51$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.111,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked shimmer70c694.67$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5122447.8%107 W · 117 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92be…3475backed shimmer68c677.25$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked shimmer50c655.69$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.023,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x130b…a733backed shimmer58c605$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.11457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Atrix Esports28c602.7$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.4829340.6%119 W · 174 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb368…202bbacked shimmer72c599.99$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.855100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Atrix Esports47c593$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.113,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Atrix Esports45c565$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.462,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Atrix Esports31c553.22$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5238739.5%153 W · 234 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed shimmer46c553.07$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.3968659.5%408 W · 278 L+65.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed shimmer62c551.88$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.2550051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Atrix Esports33c546$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.31,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a9d…9805backed shimmer57c523.82$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.651471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed shimmer40c495.48$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.292,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Atrix Esports32c450.2$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.21,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddbd…bcb5backed Atrix Esports34c440.52$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.7316720.4%34 W · 133 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-35.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed shimmer61c422.22$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.2522049.1%108 W · 112 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed Atrix Esports42c415.21$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3847054%254 W · 216 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Atrix Esports30c400$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3849935.1%175 W · 324 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0e3…c760backed Atrix Esports38c393.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507935.4%28 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Atrix Esports42c390.41$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.0975438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed Atrix Esports26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012157.9%70 W · 51 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Atrix Esports36c376.29$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.011,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe04…1481backed Atrix Esports27c374.07$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110541%43 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked shimmer60c358.33$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.6775833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Atrix Esports36c354.92$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.0340141.6%167 W · 234 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4554…8deebacked Atrix Esports40c354.78$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.51942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed Atrix Esports29c343.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8276546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Atrix Esports33c336.76$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5583543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked shimmer59c336$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.361,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb04…bc3dbacked Atrix Esports76c328.07$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Atrix Esports36c320$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.266446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Atrix Esports45c316.71$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.382,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked shimmer59c310.98$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1339772.5%288 W · 109 L+38.5wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked shimmer73c310.29$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2726554.3%144 W · 121 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c8…73ddbacked Atrix Esports29c309$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked Atrix Esports42c301.62$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3536440.1%146 W · 218 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed shimmer39c299.99$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.4939440.4%159 W · 235 L+30.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Atrix Esports37c298.89$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.742,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa57e…ed54backed Atrix Esports36c295$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1066741.8%28 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed shimmer63c288.25$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3328434.9%99 W · 185 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked shimmer70c283.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9244675.3%336 W · 110 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b90…63f1backed Atrix Esports25c271.44$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.86540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Atrix Esports45c270$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1845238.3%173 W · 279 L-29.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-29.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc169…8677backed shimmer58c269.64$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.421861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Atrix Esports23c267.95$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5310735.5%38 W · 69 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4912…b76fbacked Atrix Esports40c261.19$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.484139%16 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3265…cf6bbacked Atrix Esports30c259.18$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6614331.5%45 W · 98 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed shimmer55c254$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.032,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed shimmer62c250$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9531761.2%194 W · 123 L+22.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Atrix Esports38c240$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.248240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc988…fc36backed Atrix Esports38c235.46$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Atrix Esports49c234.72$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.862,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d87…df1dbacked Atrix Esports39c229.98$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3917545.7%80 W · 95 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed shimmer66c226.65$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2618261.5%112 W · 70 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b4c…6952backed Atrix Esports45c220$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Atrix Esports37c219$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0313840.6%56 W · 82 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed shimmer59c215$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.326650.8%135 W · 131 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked shimmer64c206.09$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.312,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ff7…4176backed Atrix Esports40c200.19$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.444944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x050e…d92fbacked shimmer72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5622257.2%127 W · 95 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7004…a778backed shimmer69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6230155.8%168 W · 133 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40fc…498dbacked Atrix Esports39c197.44$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7714441%59 W · 85 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Atrix Esports38c196$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5664046.3%296 W · 344 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6376…d0a7backed Atrix Esports37c190.56$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.511866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed Atrix Esports27c188.75$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6216036.3%58 W · 102 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6986…3369backed shimmer60c187.92$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.279849%48 W · 50 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.