TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Rolex Paris Masters: Alexandre Muller vs Brandon Nakashima

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mullerof Muller, Nakashima
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$120,297
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,297 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf152…64aabacked Nakashima75c16,985$12,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,809.327063.7%172 W · 98 L-0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3461…4629backed Muller70c15,000$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5002450%12 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Nakashima35c13,486$4,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,661.9310845.4%49 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Muller24c8,331$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,331.2314345.5%65 W · 78 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Nakashima31c7,940$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,496.4124544.9%110 W · 135 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Muller32c5,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,399.9966949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Muller37c3,751$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,346.2915832.3%51 W · 107 L-13.6wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Muller69c3,431$2,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.1765242.8%279 W · 373 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Nakashima30c3,300$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9815339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Muller74c3,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78024846%114 W · 134 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Muller78c2,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4407375.3%55 W · 18 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nakashima46c1,717$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.151,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Muller31c1,686$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.7816644.6%74 W · 92 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad1e…6b90backed Muller68c1,464$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.772166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Muller23c1,400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.0444125.4%112 W · 329 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3859…3070backed Muller67c1,112$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.257037.1%26 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nakashima31c1,015$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.222,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Nakashima34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34059151.6%305 W · 286 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Nakashima71c958.33$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.42850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa225…b903backed Muller69c947.01$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.011650%8 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd891…7341backed Nakashima76c926.54$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70012161.2%74 W · 47 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Muller76c916.32$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.321070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+28.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3520…f128backed Muller74c900$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2345362.3%33 W · 20 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3248…aad4backed Muller71c845.95$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.332343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec74…d227backed Muller76c840.44$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f5b…b993backed Nakashima33c803.59$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.512626.9%7 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-47.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf6c6…1661backed Muller72c795.81$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nakashima38c702.22$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.358,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e22…88a5backed Muller73c687.15$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.154957.1%28 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Nakashima34c609.29$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.1975547.8%361 W · 394 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nakashima68c549.54$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.352,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Muller75c536.44$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.442147.6%10 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick65cpaid-31.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fa2…cf15backed Muller28c535.71$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.7130339.3%119 W · 184 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd34…140dbacked Muller67c535.4$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.681233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Muller33c530$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.11827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6db…1931backed Muller77c519.48$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d16…4e1fbacked Muller78c512.88$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.881566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Muller51c502.69$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.131,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Nakashima28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1408148.1%39 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefa5…d58bbacked Muller33c493.94$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.943253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48d…5182backed Muller41c492.65$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.6524558.8%144 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68b5…b56fbacked Nakashima34c441.18$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x270c…f377backed Muller70c435.06$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.462254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c5…90dfbacked Muller31c419.39$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Nakashima73c394.74$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.161428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-45.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd0bf…e4a1backed Muller76c373.98$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.344443.2%19 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Muller71c371.9$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.8510060%60 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Nakashima28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019131.4%60 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe006…b06dbacked Muller29c344.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.831172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb41c…ab82backed Nakashima31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5e…2d04backed Nakashima72c300$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe66e…abddbacked Muller25c300$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2254650%23 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7df…27cdbacked Muller26c300$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2231040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Muller78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb406…ebaabacked Muller68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.121163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeef…1278backed Muller69c289.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.861258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Nakashima31c285.54$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.522119%4 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.23per pick42cpaid-58.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x34c7…66a3backed Muller77c281.06$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.641258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9999…9868backed Nakashima69c275.36$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1905050%25 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Muller75c267.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.981457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c30…d9e5backed Nakashima36c250.78$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Nakashima75c236$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1772147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Muller33c223.39$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.6757645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa746…5d21backed Nakashima24c207.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa95f…361dbacked Nakashima70c206.19$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Muller24c200$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1528643%37 W · 49 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Muller25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15040141.9%168 W · 233 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Muller76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+56.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Nakashima29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Muller25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15022737.4%85 W · 142 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f59…ce04backed Nakashima26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6515…a78abacked Muller74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17c8…b9f7backed Muller72c193.81$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.812040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Nakashima27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024529.8%73 W · 172 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e64…7308backed Muller27c166.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.675343.4%23 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5916…8d4fbacked Muller74c160$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.65862.1%36 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6a1…9fd5backed Muller65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.52544%11 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39b5…cf5fbacked Muller67c148.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.921478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick69cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb4…f8dabacked Muller69c147.82$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Nakashima69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Muller23c144.14$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11173048.8%356 W · 374 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ab…341bbacked Muller72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5db3…e657backed Muller74c136.8$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.611384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Muller28c136$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.928248.8%40 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x47c8…f30abacked Muller31c134.04$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0510036%36 W · 64 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d2…eba7backed Nakashima77c129.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2d…82f1backed Nakashima31c129.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403450%17 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd02a…c712backed Nakashima20c127.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.587432.4%24 W · 50 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6809…b188backed Muller24c125$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958269.5%57 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c94…1f7dbacked Muller68c117.63$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.641428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-48.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x76a1…5084backed Muller74c116.67$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e8…e758backed Nakashima26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308557.6%49 W · 36 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Muller23c111$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.475831%18 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa897…b08bbacked Muller66c105.79$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe4a…9373backed Muller72c104.17$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1712974.4%96 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Nakashima74c100.78$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7538356.9%218 W · 165 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c8d…b575backed Nakashima28c100.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.554820.8%10 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Muller29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711,25850%629 W · 629 L-4.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ceb…1952backed Nakashima73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736055%33 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc76a…c5c9backed Muller30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.