TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Syntax vs Team Lynx (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Syntaxof Team Syntax, Team Lynx
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,406 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…8ff2backed Team Syntax29c4,632$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,288.6847646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed Team Syntax43c3,173$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,794.110961.5%67 W · 42 L+11.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x472b…5d5fbacked Team Lynx72c2,790$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Syntax44c2,468$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.081,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Team Lynx71c2,309$1,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.231369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+39.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Syntax30c1,966$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.3769835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Lynx48c1,877$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.8889238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Team Lynx33c1,840$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.791,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team Lynx1c1,600$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.56132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Lynx32c1,500$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48079859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Team Syntax23c1,348$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.7370052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Team Syntax28c1,308$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.76033.3%20 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Lynx50c1,272$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.6493546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed Team Lynx55c1,250$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.0110651.9%55 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Syntax50c1,002$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.41,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed Team Lynx60c999.99$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9915050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Team Syntax33c986.55$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.592250%11 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba01…1a89backed Team Syntax40c968.98$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.985244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Team Syntax34c922.14$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.996544.6%29 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Lynx74c785$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.811,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25d5…11fcbacked Team Lynx64c782.79$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004568.9%31 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Team Lynx71c742.4$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.022744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a8c…1991backed Team Lynx40c705.66$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.92955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Syntax37c658.07$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.965647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef4f…4598backed Team Lynx70c634.29$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4441127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-47.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49ea…36cdbacked Team Lynx71c624.81$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.983250%16 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Syntax68c561.25$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.177256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed Team Lynx70c540.19$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.52740.7%11 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Team Syntax19c537$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.141455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed Team Syntax38c508.8$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.6915650.6%79 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c87…bf18backed Team Lynx80c500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac70…97b6backed Team Syntax61c479.29$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.21683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+31.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c2…eef4backed Team Syntax48c472.36$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.382479.2%19 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+40.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5828…b7d1backed Team Syntax40c469.57$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe434…f520backed Team Lynx65c456.25$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2985352.8%28 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Team Lynx66c452.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9617040.6%69 W · 101 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team Syntax29c436.6$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.8666545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94c1…8036backed Team Syntax70c429.52$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.526159%36 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Team Lynx60c422$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.250032.2%161 W · 339 L-47.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xafeb…6da8backed Team Lynx71c417.74$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Team Syntax26c399.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.9943738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Team Lynx69c398.79$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.0768345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…6532backed Team Lynx70c390.06$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.042948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Team Syntax56c385.61$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.761,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Team Lynx63c380.54$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4438142%160 W · 221 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59f0…ea0ebacked Team Lynx67c377.45$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Team Syntax57c376.74$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.1426147.9%125 W · 136 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Team Syntax33c375.63$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.2761449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Lynx42c340$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1431,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked Team Syntax30c336.6$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.624360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Team Syntax33c328.93$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.1524636.6%90 W · 156 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Syntax45c325.04$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.8396645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeeb…87b6backed Team Lynx73c315.69$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-37.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56fb…3a1bbacked Team Syntax48c313.41$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.988961.8%55 W · 34 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Team Lynx5c307.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9925143.4%109 W · 142 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Team Lynx67c300.23$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.3233445.2%151 W · 183 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Team Lynx68c299.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.9926445.1%119 W · 145 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a74…9a36backed Team Lynx69c299.99$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x615d…bd5bbacked Team Lynx70c299.66$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.762857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Team Syntax75c288.25$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0614655.5%81 W · 65 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x168c…f24bbacked Team Lynx70c284.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001030%3 W · 7 L-3.7wins-0.37per pick67cpaid-57.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Team Lynx64c283$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.349052.2%47 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed Team Lynx71c282.25$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006368.3%43 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Team Lynx71c280.44$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.114639.1%18 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3146…d153backed Team Syntax30c274.92$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.831656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Team Lynx4c271.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed8e…e61bbacked Team Lynx71c270.87$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.822055%11 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f1…e320backed Team Syntax62c266.76$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.762250%11 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Syntax23c256.64$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.6146240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Team Lynx56c249.98$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.991952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked Team Syntax36c246.98$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.075048%24 W · 26 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Team Lynx72c242.4$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7317647.2%83 W · 93 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x054e…51bdbacked Team Lynx46c240$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.54153.7%22 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed Team Syntax19c240$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.413044.6%58 W · 72 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Team Syntax36c238.4$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.398536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Team Lynx72c222.22$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4158746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c2…dc0bbacked Team Lynx69c217.58$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Syntax44c217.51$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.221,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed Team Syntax59c213.44$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0533265.4%217 W · 115 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked Team Syntax42c210.1$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.8611249.1%55 W · 57 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked Team Lynx66c206.36$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.221253.8%114 W · 98 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Team Lynx74c200$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4942146.6%196 W · 225 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Syntax29c197.59$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.3669132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked Team Syntax69c197.4$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8217965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Syntax55c187.46$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.081,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Syntax35c186.36$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.141,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93d7…c7a6backed Team Lynx77c182.1$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.224856.3%27 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Team Syntax77c174.59$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3219458.8%114 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Lynx46c173.58$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8781345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Team Lynx70c168.26$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7810136.6%37 W · 64 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa533…755fbacked Team Lynx71c162$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.022142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91df…fd49backed Team Lynx63c159.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014868.9%102 W · 46 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b73…02c0backed Team Lynx64c155.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…13dabacked Team Lynx70c152.28$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.61637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Lynx73c151.36$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.242,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aab…773bbacked Team Lynx66c150.63$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd22…e84abacked Team Syntax66c150.17$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked Team Syntax23c142.22$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.9610551.4%54 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee1…377abacked Team Syntax64c141.86$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.458261%50 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6082…3323backed Team Syntax18c141.11$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.11475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+116.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.