Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda6386803b486f8beb132add60056b0511365a998b4e16fd36d48c2227e6ff01

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Aston Villa FCof Manchester City FC, Aston Villa FC
Resolved: May 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,547
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,547 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Manchester City FC	31c	4,781$1,484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,483.52	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Aston Villa FC	65c	4,000$2,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,400	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Aston Villa FC	73c	3,559$2,598 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960.89	90	55.6%50 W · 40 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Aston Villa FC	70c	2,650$1,844 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$806.58	886	35.8%317 W · 569 L	-13.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Manchester City FC	27c	1,210$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.46	173	27.2%47 W · 126 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Manchester City FC	28c	1,179$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.85	594	45.5%270 W · 324 L	-15.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf055…02b5backed Manchester City FC	34c	1,029$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed Manchester City FC	33c	999.96$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.99	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-25%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Aston Villa FC	69c	906.36$625 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.97	152	55.9%85 W · 67 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Manchester City FC	31c	800$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248	73	43.8%32 W · 41 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Aston Villa FC	66c	707.87$465 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$243.36	418	50.7%212 W · 206 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Manchester City FC	34c	551.5$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.32	1,934	42.4%820 W · 1,114 L	-43.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93d4…7345backed Manchester City FC	33c	499.99$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Aston Villa FC	67c	499.99$335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165	256	48%123 W · 133 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Manchester City FC	33c	499.79$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.53	226	45.6%103 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Aston Villa FC	73c	446.12$326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.45	964	43.7%421 W · 543 L	-10.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Manchester City FC	34c	441.18$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	354	28.5%101 W · 253 L	-20.1wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Aston Villa FC	68c	439$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.48	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.20per pick	58cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Manchester City FC	32c	427.17$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.69	205	45.4%93 W · 112 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Manchester City FC	36c	388.89$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	+10.3wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Manchester City FC	27c	370.37$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	246	30.5%75 W · 171 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Manchester City FC	27c	360.31$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.27	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50a2…5152backed Aston Villa FC	65c	307.69$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.69	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a1c…5a9cbacked Aston Villa FC	66c	300$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.25per pick	38cpaid	+44.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Manchester City FC	7c	292.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	721	42.7%308 W · 413 L	+15.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Manchester City FC	35c	285.71$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	378	40.5%153 W · 225 L	-15.8wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88ed…8300backed Aston Villa FC	67c	275.49$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.91	42	64.3%27 W · 15 L	+4.9wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Manchester City FC	28c	252.89$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.68	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Aston Villa FC	70c	225$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.71	220	49.1%108 W · 112 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Manchester City FC	35c	214.15$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.84	592	47.6%282 W · 310 L	+18.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1218…1ec3backed Aston Villa FC	63c	196.3$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.63	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	64cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Manchester City FC	34c	187.59$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.69	365	45.2%165 W · 200 L	-14.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa492…adbebacked Manchester City FC	27c	185.19$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	91	31.9%29 W · 62 L	-8.3wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Manchester City FC	27c	183.42$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.15	114	37.7%43 W · 71 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Manchester City FC	34c	179$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.86	827	63%521 W · 306 L	+113.2wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+41.9%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Manchester City FC	34c	171.7$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.38	758	50%379 W · 379 L	+20.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Aston Villa FC	70c	168$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.75	1,074	45%483 W · 591 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Aston Villa FC	67c	149.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.25	222	42.8%95 W · 127 L	-5.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Aston Villa FC	65c	132.64$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.25	264	44.7%118 W · 146 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Manchester City FC	32c	123.81$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.12	54	57.4%31 W · 23 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Manchester City FC	27c	122.45$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.91	52	59.6%31 W · 21 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Manchester City FC	35c	87$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.45	292	50%146 W · 146 L	+7.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Manchester City FC	35c	85.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	63	38.1%24 W · 39 L	-5.8wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Aston Villa FC	70c	80.1$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.23	578	33%191 W · 387 L	-29.9wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88ee…13d8backed Aston Villa FC	64c	78.13$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.13	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Aston Villa FC	66c	66.68$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.67	105	34.3%36 W · 69 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Manchester City FC	34c	65.87$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.51	93	45.2%42 W · 51 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-17%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f76…3c44backed Manchester City FC	31c	65.55$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.58	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Aston Villa FC	73c	63$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.01	152	33.6%51 W · 101 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e1…f5a9backed Aston Villa FC	66c	61.82$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.02	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	66cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe14f…8581backed Aston Villa FC	65c	61.54$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.54	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x133b…5856backed Manchester City FC	41c	60.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	50	44%22 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Aston Villa FC	71c	56.34$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.34	17	94.1%16 W · 1 L	+3.7wins	+0.22per pick	73cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Aston Villa FC	70c	55$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	143	54.5%78 W · 65 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e33…bf4dbacked Manchester City FC	28c	53.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb73b…91b9backed Manchester City FC	35c	50.02$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.51	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Manchester City FC	30c	49.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	288	59.7%172 W · 116 L	+19.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+13%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Aston Villa FC	71c	43.62$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.65	212	50.9%108 W · 104 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b81…88e7backed Manchester City FC	26c	43.6$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Manchester City FC	31c	41.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.86	78	50%39 W · 39 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Aston Villa FC	70c	40$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	655	57.7%378 W · 277 L	+26.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5522…c807backed Aston Villa FC	65c	40$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.2	12	83.3%10 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.15per pick	69cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Aston Villa FC	68c	36.41$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.65	1,220	49.8%607 W · 613 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Aston Villa FC	75c	29.44$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.47	150	46%69 W · 81 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Aston Villa FC	67c	29$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.57	746	44.8%334 W · 412 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Aston Villa FC	65c	25$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.85	270	51.5%139 W · 131 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf44d…28b8backed Aston Villa FC	68c	22.06$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.06	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Aston Villa FC	70c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	834	59.4%495 W · 339 L	+25.1wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Aston Villa FC	69c	18.05$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.6	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)this page
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5Over won
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event