Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3843f1516e05121a91f27846a0308fccd1143bfd29e67dc5cc9a49398d956198
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 64c | 2,537$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 28c | 1,604$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.44 | 562 | 41.5%233 W · 329 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 68c | 1,525$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.27 | 914 | 35.3%323 W · 591 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 31c | 1,513$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.39 | 136 | 33.8%46 W · 90 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 30c | 1,100$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +8.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41c2…b6a5backed Over | 38c | 1,085$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 72c | 932.25$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.27 | 1,690 | 34.9%589 W · 1,101 L | -33.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 63c | 799.09$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.62 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Under | 79c | 599.97$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 75c | 397.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Under | 70c | 382.52$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.92 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 29c | 332.12$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 593 | 32.9%195 W · 398 L | -30.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 32c | 322.14$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 418 | 50.7%212 W · 206 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Over | 31c | 320.81$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 173 | 27.2%47 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 64c | 276.92$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 71c | 260.81$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 74c | 254.24$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a1…7833backed Under | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +21.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 228.18$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 71c | 220.48$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 504 | 50%252 W · 252 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 29c | 216$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 337 | 51.3%173 W · 164 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…f1e2backed Over | 29c | 199.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 28c | 187$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 136 | 30.9%42 W · 94 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd043…9ce2backed Under | 72c | 164.05$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Over | 32c | 159.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Over | 32c | 156.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 150.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 76c | 145.95$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 27 | 88.9%24 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…4160backed Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df2…d472backed Under | 73c | 89.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…10c0backed Under | 66c | 83.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Over | 35c | 79.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…6eebbacked Under | 66c | 76.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 31.9%46 W · 98 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 35c | 62.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 105 | 34.3%36 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f4…2df9backed Under | 80c | 62.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 68cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Over | 29c | 60.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 34c | 60.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 288 | 59.7%172 W · 116 L | +19.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…7188backed Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Under | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Under | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -6.8wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 32c | 36.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 264 | 44.7%118 W · 146 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 69c | 31.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 66c | 29.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2df…0bbfbacked Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 72c | 25.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddc…6ebabacked Under | 73c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 69c | 23.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Under | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.