Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85f31180a54326d1c3dfd02aece90258666432e0b2011e7655b005ca54bc0d4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 2,675$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.11 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f16…5fe7backed Under | 45c | 2,023$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Over | 65c | 1,800$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 59c | 1,697$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.03 | 141 | 38.3%54 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc4…ab52backed Over | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 71c | 753.98$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.44 | 136 | 33.8%46 W · 90 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 15c | 589.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 541 | 32.9%178 W · 363 L | -28.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Under | 6c | 513.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 13c | 503.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 8c | 465.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Under | 25c | 446.82$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Under | 3c | 431$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 30c | 255.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 240.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 36c | 204.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 30c | 154.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 418 | 50.7%212 W · 206 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7906…be5dbacked Over | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 70c | 146.17$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 72c | 144.33$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 69c | 138.48$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 553 | 51.9%287 W · 266 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…1397backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 29c | 133.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 578 | 47.8%276 W · 302 L | +18.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Over | 77c | 129.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 72c | 115.71$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 1,923 | 42.4%815 W · 1,108 L | -42.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 31c | 101.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 264 | 44.7%118 W · 146 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Over | 71c | 98.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 69c | 94.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 72c | 90.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 70c | 84.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 30c | 81.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 696 | 51.1%356 W · 340 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 75c | 81.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 31c | 80.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac6…bdf8backed Under | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Under | 40c | 75.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 162 | 33.3%54 W · 108 L | -14.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 61cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…21f7backed Over | 68c | 72.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 552 | 54.5%301 W · 251 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 70c | 69.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 532 | 40%213 W · 319 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 32c | 68.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 105 | 34.3%36 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…81cebacked Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 63.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 2,530 | 47.7%1,206 W · 1,324 L | +43.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 64c | 61.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 812 | 34.7%282 W · 530 L | -24.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 31c | 59.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 406 | 55.2%224 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 72c | 59.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 726 | 58.7%426 W · 300 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Over | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 73cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 27c | 53.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 144 | 63.2%91 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 30c | 53.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 697 | 42.5%296 W · 401 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 59c | 44.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 173 | 27.2%47 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…1bf3backed Over | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Over | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768c…1b22backed Under | 28c | 40.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8684…bfaabacked Under | 26c | 38.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…c6b1backed Over | 69c | 37.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 208 | 64.9%135 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,615 | 34.9%564 W · 1,051 L | -28.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddea…40bfbacked Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 248 | 44.4%110 W · 138 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 202 | 59.9%121 W · 81 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 68c | 28.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 114 | 37.7%43 W · 71 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 61c | 25.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 75c | 21.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 288 | 59.7%172 W · 116 L | +19.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 74c | 21.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfb…550cbacked Over | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 56c | 18.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.