TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,531
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,345

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,531 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants11c2,756$307 inLost-$306.618,30446.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Chicago Cubs75c763.31$572 inWon+$190.834156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Chicago Cubs75c608$456 inWon+$1524,12057.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L+67.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed San Francisco Giants25c411.31$103 inLost-$102.834,55549.2%2,239 W · 2,316 L-9.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed San Francisco Giants25c348$87 inLost-$871,89452.9%1,001 W · 893 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs79c303.03$239 inWon+$64.2411,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs76c293.87$225 inWon+$69.1112,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Chicago Cubs70c285.71$200 inWon+$85.713775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.4wins+0.20per pick56cpaid+36.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed San Francisco Giants18c216$38 inLost-$38.1813746%63 W · 74 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed San Francisco Giants16c200$32 inLost-$329448.9%46 W · 48 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+17.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants18c140$25 inLost-$25.24,44545%2,001 W · 2,444 L+87.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Chicago Cubs75c106.61$80 inWon+$26.6543560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants41c96.58$39 inLost-$39.23,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants29c96.25$28 inLost-$28.028,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs65c89.21$58 inWon+$31.138,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Chicago Cubs75c53.13$40 inWon+$13.0545245.8%207 W · 245 L-2.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants31c52.9$16 inLost-$16.45,18254.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L+227.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants31c42.2$13 inLost-$13.083,46751.2%1,775 W · 1,692 L+105.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Chicago Cubs74c19.23$14 inWon+$51,85254%1,001 W · 851 L+25.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ce…41acbacked Chicago Cubs67c19.12$13 inWon+$6.3110158.4%59 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Chicago Cubs64c16.12$10 inWon+$5.81,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs73c15$11 inWon+$4.059,89146.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L+40.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.