MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf048be9e07c9d7ac021937bedbeed586494c86f15a5cbe518f82672dd31a504b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 20,270$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked San Francisco Giants | 76c | 17,500$13,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,224.98 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 10,000$6,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,700 | 531 | 50.5%268 W · 263 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2618…39f9backed San Francisco Giants | 79c | 8,846$6,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,862.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 22c | 8,018$1,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,769.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 24c | 6,870$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.59 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 5,550$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 4,440$2,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.4 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 21c | 2,669$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.05 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 2,014$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 78c | 1,642$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.99 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 21c | 1,553$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 1,480$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Chicago Cubs | 23c | 779.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 695.28$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.25 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4748…9666backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 666.43$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.58 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Chicago Cubs | 29c | 571.39$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.61 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Francisco Giants | 77c | 435.39$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Francisco Giants | 78c | 384.6$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 27c | 368.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Chicago Cubs | 22c | 326.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 302.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Chicago Cubs | 32c | 288$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Chicago Cubs | 29c | 276.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7e17backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 243.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Cubs | 25c | 235.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Chicago Cubs | 23c | 190$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…51adbacked Chicago Cubs | 31c | 163.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 149.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Chicago Cubs | 33c | 147.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Chicago Cubs | 29c | 131$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 119.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Chicago Cubs | 31c | 117.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 109.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Chicago Cubs | 25c | 109.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Chicago Cubs | 12c | 101.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked San Francisco Giants | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…3ef0backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 97.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs | 25c | 91.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 28c | 91.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Chicago Cubs | 28c | 84.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed Chicago Cubs | 22c | 83.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Chicago Cubs | 21c | 77.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 18c | 68.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 57.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Chicago Cubs | 29c | 56.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Chicago Cubs | 29c | 55.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81bb…3049backed Chicago Cubs | 28c | 51.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…0a49backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 45.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 44.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb6…67edbacked Chicago Cubs | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Chicago Cubs | 29c | 39.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 34.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 30.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked San Francisco Giants | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Giants | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed San Francisco Giants | 76c | 14.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.