MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b442cbe1ea581b0861819f27c4b19e61e257602896c9ea57a0d81933724d82b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Chicago Cubs | 75c | 10,000$7,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,512.95 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 7,941$3,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,469.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 31c | 3,240$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 2,284$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.36 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 2,146$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.65 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 2,138$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.3 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 1,699$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.48 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 1,330$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.27 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 1,203$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.07 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Chicago Cubs | 59c | 1,102$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.92 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 31c | 1,079$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.19 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 697.26$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.04 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 653.95$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.88 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 602.64$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.37 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 570.13$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.13 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 513.91$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed San Francisco Giants | 31c | 511.3$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.42 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Chicago Cubs | 56c | 329.7$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…3e6ebacked San Francisco Giants | 5c | 327.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked San Francisco Giants | 51c | 302.81$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.02 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 235.94$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…e934backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 205.18$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 78c | 203.05$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 148.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 129$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 127.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 22c | 126.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Chicago Cubs | 67c | 119.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 109.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 104.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 100.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 76.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…5de2backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 73.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 69.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed San Francisco Giants | 32c | 67.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants | 30c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 704 | 50.1%353 W · 351 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 23c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked San Francisco Giants | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 49.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 38.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Chicago Cubs | 78c | 32.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe325…34d0backed San Francisco Giants | 49c | 26.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 21.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ec…ebc9backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Chicago Cubs | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.