MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4333cd609c108028024406861a77393a6f1305a74c474b67642ecce5fe06f5df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 38c | 31,251$11,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,875.35 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 62c | 19,424$12,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,381.21 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 9,035$5,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,443.38 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 62c | 2,000$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.99 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…68f7backed Under | 62c | 1,181$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.8 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 68c | 734.04$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.72 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Under | 53c | 679.25$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.25 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 62c | 627.24$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.35 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Over | 37c | 617.45$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.46 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Over | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 38c | 460$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 38c | 435.33$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.05 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 63c | 317.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 64c | 269.12$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.89 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 62c | 240$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 158.57$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cd…896abacked Over | 39c | 153.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 38c | 150.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Over | 39c | 128$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 41c | 125.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked Over | 39c | 113.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 62c | 113$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 73c | 107.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e6…ef53backed Over | 43c | 103.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3611…14fbbacked Under | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 37c | 91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2815…7f0cbacked Under | 64c | 78.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 62c | 67.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 36c | 58.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 41c | 42.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…e2c0backed Under | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Under | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Under | 72c | 27.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 62c | 18.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.