TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Francisco Giantsof Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,773
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,985

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,773 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs15c4,973$757 inLost-$757.278,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Chicago Cubs27c3,704$1,000 inLost-$1,00016548.5%80 W · 85 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Chicago Cubs17c3,077$532 inLost-$532.242,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants73c1,106$807 inWon+$298.645,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c57…40febacked San Francisco Giants73c945.01$690 inWon+$255.1521550.2%108 W · 107 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants73c675.79$496 inWon+$179.8611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants73c600$438 inWon+$1626,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed San Francisco Giants73c280$204 inWon+$75.689053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants74c250.97$185 inWon+$66.138,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed San Francisco Giants79c189.87$150 inWon+$39.8787750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants79c78$62 inWon+$16.385,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants80c77.09$62 inWon+$15.473,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Chicago Cubs27c74.07$20 inLost-$2079543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Chicago Cubs27c55.56$15 inLost-$1568942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82aa…fe2fbacked Chicago Cubs23c47.46$11 inLost-$10.9215143.7%66 W · 85 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed San Francisco Giants77c43.8$34 inWon+$9.921,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed San Francisco Giants74c27$20 inWon+$7.0229446.6%137 W · 157 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed San Francisco Giants74c15$11 inWon+$3.91,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.