MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44a281951cdb032b93816f85de1b83f5a5c94d0ec00818dda6812f3508f5b0dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 4,574$3,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.47 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 19c | 3,360$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.74 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 76c | 2,808$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,122.37 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 25c | 1,806$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.26 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 35c | 1,648$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.41 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 1,501$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 21c | 1,455$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Under | 74c | 1,118$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.71 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 36c | 810.81$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.89 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 27c | 644.86$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 75c | 601$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.75 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 44c | 595.34$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.4 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 19c | 594.25$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.91 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 19c | 568.23$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.05 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 72c | 457.23$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.64 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 25c | 440$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 53c | 439.39$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.06 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 401.94$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Under | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 76c | 400$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9d38backed Over | 75c | 353.33$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 20c | 326.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 35c | 296.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Under | 50c | 287.16$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.16 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 19c | 224.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cd…896abacked Over | 75c | 196.81$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 25c | 172.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.79 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 21c | 168.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 19c | 154.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 20c | 151.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 36c | 136.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 52c | 129.29$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Over | 20c | 122.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 21c | 115.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed Over | 76c | 110.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.82 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 44c | 103.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 53c | 99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82d…7882backed Over | 25c | 90.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 16c | 89.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…3691backed Over | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 24c | 82.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 24c | 77.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Over | 19c | 76.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed Over | 19c | 76.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 32c | 76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked Over | 19c | 75.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Over | 20c | 73.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…24b8backed Over | 19c | 69.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…d80cbacked Over | 76c | 63.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 74c | 62.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 19c | 61.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…3e6ebacked Under | 48c | 59.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Over | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f8dabacked Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 75c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…bc65backed Over | 45c | 42.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Under | 72c | 35.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 63c | 35.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 54c | 33.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Over | 76c | 31.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 77c | 25.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Over | 65c | 23.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 73c | 23.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 76c | 22.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf390…bdbabacked Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.