MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6962ef40d706fec77aff12efea51f986d29e9bfd936d47547e0b46506bb6e678
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Under | 49c | 10,000$4,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,082.7 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 58c | 6,432$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,699.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 31c | 2,824$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.67 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 51c | 1,800$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 31c | 815.38$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.35 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 583.14$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.34 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 41c | 355.87$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 35c | 227.26$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 59c | 185.89$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 73c | 171.31$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 27c | 155.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 126.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over | 40c | 123.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Under | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 64c | 78.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 63c | 78.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Over | 21c | 68.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 40c | 60.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 40c | 60.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 40c | 60.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 25c | 51.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 32c | 49.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 53c | 48.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…3691backed Over | 62c | 40.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 64c | 35.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 52c | 35.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…e494backed Over | 54c | 33.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 64c | 32.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 46c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Over | 64c | 30.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Over | 38c | 28.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked Over | 64c | 19.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Over | 64c | 19.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed Over | 64c | 18.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.