MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79d10d77f1ea9b302e10b5bce86a1cd46ce9db2338831887b8653414aaca329c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 14c | 1,315$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.98 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Over | 67c | 1,050$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 68c | 835.49$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.02 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 33c | 731.93$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.39 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 39c | 728.3$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.63 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 32c | 526.81$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.48 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 51c | 503.35$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.2 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 34c | 398.58$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.06 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Under | 76c | 397.1$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 383.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 46c | 319$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.51 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 279.54$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 73c | 257.75$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Over | 68c | 237.63$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.37 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 236$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.48 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 32c | 221.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.52 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 20c | 217.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 65c | 216.46$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…33b5backed Over | 45c | 201.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 60c | 157.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf9…dde4backed Over | 63c | 157.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -65%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 55c | 135.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 133.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 35c | 125.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.73 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b6…c324backed Under | 80c | 99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 13c | 96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 31c | 74.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 57c | 74.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 23c | 53.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Over | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 43c | 40.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 35c | 32.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 76c | 31.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 66c | 28.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 66c | 22.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 66c | 20.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…3e6ebacked Under | 52c | 20.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da6…1615backed Over | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 66c | 16.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.