TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.G Esportsof FULL SENSE, Gen.G Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,850
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,850 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee8e…0a7bbacked FULL SENSE70c8,133$5,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,731.878162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x697f…b756backed Gen.G Esports40c4,605$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,762.9813345.9%61 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed FULL SENSE61c3,080$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864.9641537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Gen.G Esports30c2,039$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.9941734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f70…ce77backed FULL SENSE12c1,750$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick12cpaid+166.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Gen.G Esports40c1,684$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.2433942.2%143 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked FULL SENSE60c1,300$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7804531.1%14 W · 31 L-9.8wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-45.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Gen.G Esports44c1,292$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.2974642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed FULL SENSE17c1,251$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.6946326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed Gen.G Esports41c1,176$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.623151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c3f…75cfbacked Gen.G Esports40c1,128$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.7913651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcff0…fa1abacked FULL SENSE13c1,100$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick13cpaid+204.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed FULL SENSE60c1,071$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.218934.8%31 W · 58 L-11.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed FULL SENSE16c906$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0614436.1%52 W · 92 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…279bbacked Gen.G Esports45c882.04$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.0410552.4%55 W · 50 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed FULL SENSE19c800$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x845a…37acbacked FULL SENSE13c800$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103560%3 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.45per pick15cpaid+266.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked FULL SENSE19c800$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed FULL SENSE19c800$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013035.4%46 W · 84 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed FULL SENSE19c800$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9f6…55aabacked FULL SENSE12c800$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+102.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Gen.G Esports30c745.51$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.563836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed FULL SENSE59c650.09$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.3128541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed FULL SENSE41c642.17$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.0116033.8%54 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed FULL SENSE6c613$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9223836.1%86 W · 152 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Gen.G Esports41c609.76$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.7629733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed FULL SENSE16c606$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0613336.8%49 W · 84 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed FULL SENSE16c606$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0612633.3%42 W · 84 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Gen.G Esports44c605.07$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.0457151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed FULL SENSE19c600$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11511841.5%49 W · 69 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Gen.G Esports15c588.75$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.4332047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed FULL SENSE60c550$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3307445.9%34 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Gen.G Esports41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29524457.8%141 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65b7…3798backed FULL SENSE60c488.03$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.8218952.4%99 W · 90 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FULL SENSE22c448.46$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.921,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf50d…7ba8backed FULL SENSE11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed FULL SENSE19c400$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7512243.4%53 W · 69 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17c…cc2bbacked Gen.G Esports63c380.28$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked Gen.G Esports40c379.99$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.993148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb003…d62dbacked FULL SENSE60c350$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102035%7 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5839…3fa8backed FULL SENSE60c348.47$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.082857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed FULL SENSE18c340$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.75831%18 W · 40 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed FULL SENSE60c333.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005738.6%22 W · 35 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed FULL SENSE23c326.56$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6541835.6%149 W · 269 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked FULL SENSE60c319.46$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.2630652.3%160 W · 146 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9734…bfd8backed FULL SENSE60c301.67$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18119257.8%111 W · 81 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x677f…1228backed Gen.G Esports40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18012745.7%58 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Gen.G Esports16c250$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21088844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed FULL SENSE6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15521.9%1 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7e4…15eebacked FULL SENSE11c250$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51225%3 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+53.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Gen.G Esports17c235.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.545250%226 W · 226 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe01f…ab4abacked FULL SENSE57c231.26$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0925444.9%114 W · 140 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5410…dcc7backed Gen.G Esports11c208$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.215931.4%50 W · 109 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd607…6ddcbacked FULL SENSE11c206.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick12cpaid+499.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Gen.G Esports40c204$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.45846.6%27 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4cd…e2abbacked FULL SENSE58c202.04$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.546048.3%29 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed FULL SENSE25c201.88$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9377929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7da4…f0a4backed FULL SENSE8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FULL SENSE26c180.48$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.031,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Gen.G Esports40c175$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10519943.7%87 W · 112 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed Gen.G Esports45c167.15$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.168053.8%43 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed FULL SENSE60c167$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.26553.8%35 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed FULL SENSE60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006446.9%30 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05c5…8181backed FULL SENSE60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked FULL SENSE60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10062856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed FULL SENSE60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001560%9 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Gen.G Esports59c163.67$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4342540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked FULL SENSE40c161.26$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6414533.8%49 W · 96 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Gen.G Esports56c160.17$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.817555.4%97 W · 78 L+12.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed FULL SENSE16c158$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.01825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Gen.G Esports41c119.27$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.378043.8%35 W · 45 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Gen.G Esports43c116.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1637545.6%171 W · 204 L-1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked FULL SENSE52c111.33$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5142051.9%218 W · 202 L-21.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x347d…098abacked FULL SENSE63c108.69$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.471450%7 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Gen.G Esports40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6014252.1%74 W · 68 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Gen.G Esports40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6025245.2%114 W · 138 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf05…ec01backed FULL SENSE60c89.5$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked FULL SENSE56c80.44$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0536648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdc…d689backed FULL SENSE60c77.16$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.293647.2%17 W · 19 L-6.4wins-0.18per pick65cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed FULL SENSE60c70$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4263652.7%335 W · 301 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe84…54ddbacked Gen.G Esports40c70$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4218651.1%95 W · 91 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Gen.G Esports50c68.3$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8669722.8%159 W · 538 L-94.4wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x4cb3…9e69backed FULL SENSE60c66.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405350.9%27 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd10f…bef4backed FULL SENSE60c66.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked FULL SENSE48c65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0996245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Gen.G Esports39c58.26$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5434443.3%149 W · 195 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed FULL SENSE52c57.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8323733.8%80 W · 157 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FULL SENSE42c52.52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2184838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9e4…47ecbacked Gen.G Esports67c52.34$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.34650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Gen.G Esports41c51.45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3527145%122 W · 149 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed Gen.G Esports41c50.9$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.032744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58cc…2296backed FULL SENSE60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed Gen.G Esports40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Gen.G Esports40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3019040%76 W · 114 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Gen.G Esports41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.788259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+29.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed Gen.G Esports41c46.83$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6318948.7%92 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed FULL SENSE59c46.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5443059.8%257 W · 173 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95bb…288dbacked Gen.G Esports25c44.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.235944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed Gen.G Esports39c44.26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c2e…e0eabacked FULL SENSE61c44.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.