College Football · resolved market
Oregon vs. Indiana: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde06e9ae2276afb327b595d1b5d3eefc878d2168279c9c78c23ae5e095869d78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 16,424$7,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,684.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 54c | 9,000$4,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,140 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 6,915$3,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,353.79 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Over | 51c | 2,496$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.02 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 49c | 2,463$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.75 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 51c | 2,442$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.29 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…1eacbacked Under | 51c | 2,073$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Over | 54c | 1,336$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.62 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…b1e0backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 46c | 696$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.16 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked Under | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Over | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…04aabacked Over | 51c | 529.41$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Under | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…a7b6backed Under | 50c | 340$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 314.09$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 59c | 230$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Under | 52c | 192.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c2…2b13backed Under | 50c | 190$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 51c | 188.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Under | 42c | 167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab52…5487backed Under | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 53c | 126.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 108.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 47c | 99.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 52c | 91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6666…c652backed Under | 47c | 51.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Under | 49c | 51.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 50.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575b…14f0backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…6aa8backed Under | 47c | 37.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…49efbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oregon vs. Indiana: O/U 48.5this page
- O/U 46.5Over won
- Oregon vs. IndianaIndiana won
- Oregon vs. Indiana: 1H MoneylineIndiana won
- Oregon vs. Indiana: O/U 47.5Over won
- Oregon vs. Indiana: O/U 49.5Over won
- Oregon vs. Indiana: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana (-3.5)Indiana won
- Spread: Indiana (-4.5)Indiana won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.