NBA · resolved market
Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde7056972b89ffcd174f59171d37a461ba12c3bd5e020963dbf408ceea00499a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,974 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x175e…49b4backed Yes | 44c | 1,262$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 58c | 1,170$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.78 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Yes | 34c | 882.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 66c | 800$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a2c4backed Yes | 39c | 491.74$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 63c | 326.35$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.94 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 54c | 294.26$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.96 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c66…0a4fbacked Yes | 33c | 240$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Yes | 53c | 238$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.07 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed No | 47c | 214$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.42 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 65c | 183.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 38c | 150.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…94e0backed Yes | 59c | 128.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 66c | 119.09$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…e3c3backed Yes | 40c | 94.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked No | 67c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 270 | 74.1%200 W · 70 L | +30.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 68c | 74.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 67c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…439ebacked Yes | 32c | 60.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 43c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 59c | 46.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…a8dbbacked No | 51c | 39.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b4…c59fbacked No | 48c | 36.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Pacers won
- Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jarace Walker: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Pacers vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 101.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-13.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-14.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-15.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-16.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.