Champions League · resolved market
Will Villarreal vs. Juventus end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0963b452f3e5244a661d3bdc5fd6bce686bdd5cefcd55d6ab98268ff987c8a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 7,931$2,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,645.53 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…332cbacked Yes | 29c | 6,558$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,656.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb48c…4c3cbacked No | 71c | 5,635$4,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 71c | 5,500$3,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,905 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…afd7backed No | 71c | 4,370$3,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,102.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…c16abacked No | 73c | 3,701$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec7…4723backed Yes | 29c | 3,455$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,453.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 71c | 3,000$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.99 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked No | 72c | 2,995$2,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.4 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 28c | 2,486$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.58 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 27c | 1,743$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.4 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 53c | 804.22$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.52 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 27c | 724.44$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.25 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 75c | 703.57$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.95 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 28c | 700$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 69c | 645.16$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.16 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…9a6abacked Yes | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.16 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 30c | 613.33$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.18 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 41c | 575.58$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.28 | 203 | 43.3%88 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 67c | 370$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.7 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 43c | 328.59$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.33 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 58c | 233.04$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 43c | 222.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.44 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 29c | 222$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.62 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d1…817ebacked No | 76c | 221.11$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -81%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d22…3aabbacked Yes | 27c | 199.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.03 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 64c | 188.02$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1932…4e5abacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 28c | 166.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 165.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.51 | 440 | 33.9%149 W · 291 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 28c | 154.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.64 | 129 | 38%49 W · 80 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 71c | 151$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf4…5608backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 25c | 139.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.45 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 71c | 127.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…1593backed Yes | 29c | 123.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Yes | 28c | 111.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 26c | 111$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02d…208ebacked Yes | 48c | 104.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 28c | 97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 298 | 46.3%138 W · 160 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 63c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…bda6backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 30c | 83.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3b…98b0backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…f2bbbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…705fbacked Yes | 29c | 62.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 72c | 58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…8d0cbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +54%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…6f5bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 27c | 44.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 74c | 42.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 28c | 40.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 73c | 34.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed No | 71c | 22.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…175dbacked No | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Villarreal vs. Juventus end in a draw?this page
- Will Juventus win on 2025-10-01?No won
- Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.