Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Norway?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe210b6936a63a07a8f8e0e2079992e681ecf3ac77e2e0b0b40d724d268f1c5e0

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $47,228
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $48,283

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,228 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9f41…8f27backed No	61c	6,368$3,884 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,483.48	402	39.8%160 W · 242 L	-13.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes	1c	3,479$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.79	585	30.9%181 W · 404 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Yes	39c	3,300$1,287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,286.89	432	48.4%209 W · 223 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No	61c	2,578$1,570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,008.35	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	39c	2,248$872 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$871.52	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No	61c	2,023$1,229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$794.16	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes	39c	1,976$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780.26	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked No	61c	1,805$1,101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$704.04	706	48.2%340 W · 366 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	39c	1,334$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.68	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed No	61c	1,125$684 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$441.16	847	38.8%329 W · 518 L	-9.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No	63c	883.04$557 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$326.41	484	38.2%185 W · 299 L	-6.0wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No	60c	846.06$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$335.69	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No	60c	750$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	476	48.5%231 W · 245 L	+13.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20f…6ccebacked Yes	41c	738.83$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	184	35.3%65 W · 119 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked No	58c	722.56$421 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$301.8	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f8…64c9backed Yes	39c	641.03$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	232	24.1%56 W · 176 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes	39c	500$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	549	17.9%98 W · 451 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No	59c	445$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.45	597	52.1%311 W · 286 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No	60c	439.14$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.13	343	30%103 W · 240 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	54c	362.08$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.28	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc827…ff0fbacked Yes	4c	360.67$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.43	114	12.3%14 W · 100 L	+10.2wins	+0.09per pick	3cpaid	+348.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ba4…d608backed Yes	39c	352.14$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.07	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-2.8wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b7f…d56cbacked No	58c	328$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.06	825	37.1%306 W · 519 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x157c…cbc8backed Yes	39c	256.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	57c	253.12$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.09	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf269…b117backed Yes	39c	249.13$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.16	58	20.7%12 W · 46 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x470b…1885backed Yes	40c	248.2$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.28	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-2.9wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d36…9c54backed Yes	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	125	17.6%22 W · 103 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd00…d1afbacked No	60c	212.24$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.39	455	28.4%129 W · 326 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1878…47a9backed Yes	40c	206.39$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.56	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b8…d54cbacked Yes	39c	158.85$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.05	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-3.0wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa135…68b8backed No	62c	150.27$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.1	322	45.3%146 W · 176 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No	55c	135$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.75	245	41.2%101 W · 144 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a4…5e8fbacked Yes	41c	130$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.7	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9c1…c1b8backed Yes	39c	128.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	98	36.7%36 W · 62 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes	46c	120$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.0wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes	42c	119.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	50	38%19 W · 31 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No	61c	115.99$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.58	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…6568backed Yes	45c	111.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	10.2%5 W · 44 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65c6…b741backed Yes	45c	107.56$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.22per pick	44cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes	36c	102$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.72	2,380	53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L	+76.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Yes	36c	100$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	128	31.3%40 W · 88 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes	36c	96.89$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.88	2,411	53%1,278 W · 1,133 L	+75.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc8…a0e4backed No	61c	92.66$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.11	866	56.4%488 W · 378 L	-13.8wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5362…d3fbbacked Yes	40c	87.5$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	77	44.2%34 W · 43 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	40c	82.22$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.89	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75a8…7a77backed No	64c	80$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.8	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-24%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30e7…d258backed Yes	39c	76.13$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	83	30.1%25 W · 58 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c81…a42bbacked Yes	41c	72.59$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	43	60.5%26 W · 17 L	+3.0wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed No	62c	70$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	1,293	53.6%693 W · 600 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3211…bcf7backed No	63c	63$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.31	369	53.9%199 W · 170 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x928d…c482backed Yes	31c	60.01$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.68	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked No	61c	59.35$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.85	2,231	49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc3…4bdcbacked Yes	31c	57.62$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.86	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+2.9wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa14d…48bcbacked Yes	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	101	42.6%43 W · 58 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd520…0c5fbacked Yes	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	116	40.5%47 W · 69 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb00f…f072backed Yes	39c	51.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd468…f6febacked Yes	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	87	40.2%35 W · 52 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf1…2960backed Yes	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	165	31.5%52 W · 113 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5ae…8462backed Yes	40c	49.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda9…f624backed No	62c	47.82$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	1,151	58.5%673 W · 478 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe126…56babacked Yes	42c	47.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd85f…0a2cbacked Yes	42c	47.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	72	50%36 W · 36 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45a5…5b1bbacked Yes	42c	47.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	71	40.8%29 W · 42 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdea0…632dbacked Yes	43c	46.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9c7…147abacked No	64c	44$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.06	147	46.3%68 W · 79 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x223b…971cbacked Yes	39c	42.44$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	160	40%64 W · 96 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…ecadbacked Yes	39c	40$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	282	51.4%145 W · 137 L	+10.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fdd…d385backed No	61c	36.22$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.01	213	49.8%106 W · 107 L	-10.9wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No	60c	36.13$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.55	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60e0…33fabacked Yes	46c	34.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	375	26.1%98 W · 277 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes	37c	33.17$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	1,475	44.9%663 W · 812 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66bb…cd52backed Yes	47c	32.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	331	23.6%78 W · 253 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ee…150abacked Yes	38c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	138	42.8%59 W · 79 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No	52c	27.19$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.05	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3561…f1b7backed No	62c	27.1$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.34	950	37.5%356 W · 594 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb114…8355backed Yes	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f0…780abacked Yes	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dca…da77backed Yes	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No	61c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.75	197	60.4%119 W · 78 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	58c	23.01$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.76	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xceab…dce7backed No	62c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.98	544	50.6%275 W · 269 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x378a…09e2backed No	62c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.98	78	60.3%47 W · 31 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2614…4442backed No	61c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.19	420	48.8%205 W · 215 L	+18.5wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7e3…31dfbacked No	62c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.98	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82a0…14b3backed No	62c	20.98$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.97	282	57.1%161 W · 121 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f55…22b9backed No	62c	20.97$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.97	166	63.9%106 W · 60 L	+20.6wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5abc…ec69backed No	62c	20.5$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.79	130	60.8%79 W · 51 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c34…266dbacked No	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.85	256	55.1%141 W · 115 L	-10.9wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa140…5531backed No	63c	19.84$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.34	127	62.2%79 W · 48 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe947…b01fbacked No	63c	18.7$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.92	144	63.2%91 W · 53 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4df…e6cfbacked No	74c	18.14$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.79	117	64.1%75 W · 42 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Norway?this page
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Neither team to score first?No won
Norway to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Norway?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event