TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Resilienceof Team Resilience, Rune Eaters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$342,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$372,568

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $342,083 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Rune Eaters54c114,546$61,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,603.481,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Team Resilience45c48,568$21,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,712.547146.1%217 W · 254 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Rune Eaters53c28,935$15,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,242.350347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Resilience48c23,025$10,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,034.5189341.5%371 W · 522 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed Rune Eaters36c11,917$4,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,289.6118551.4%95 W · 90 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Team Resilience48c10,000$4,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,229.9932549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Team Resilience46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.9929952.2%156 W · 143 L+19.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Resilience46c8,794$4,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,727.441,17943.1%508 W · 671 L+41.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09d8…c3a5backed Rune Eaters50c7,787$3,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,891.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Team Resilience45c7,758$3,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,233.1515050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked Rune Eaters31c6,929$2,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,136.222031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Team Resilience74c6,093$4,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.923561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Resilience44c6,000$2,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,361.6780056%448 W · 352 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Team Resilience48c5,588$2,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,931.73852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Resilience45c5,211$2,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,866.0441056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Rune Eaters57c4,974$2,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,835.4518351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Team Resilience44c4,705$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,635.0724246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Resilience40c4,457$1,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,674.288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2931…7b81backed Rune Eaters25c4,363$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.3418560.5%112 W · 73 L+12.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2eea…1a4cbacked Rune Eaters34c4,217$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.0612159.5%72 W · 49 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Rune Eaters47c3,913$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,821.9931936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed Rune Eaters12c3,628$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.4347348.2%228 W · 245 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2929…1dd0backed Rune Eaters33c2,993$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016553.3%88 W · 77 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde24…4dedbacked Team Resilience49c2,653$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.0619853%105 W · 93 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Rune Eaters19c2,560$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.8850449.2%248 W · 256 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Resilience40c2,364$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.6894442.3%399 W · 545 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Team Resilience59c2,328$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.0345352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Rune Eaters48c2,157$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.2716641%68 W · 98 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Team Resilience40c2,090$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.5335637.1%132 W · 224 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Resilience65c2,052$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.7353764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Team Resilience67c2,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.9933453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd25f…eab3backed Rune Eaters17c1,957$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.3110840.7%44 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked Rune Eaters6c1,808$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.975829.3%17 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e23…1c3dbacked Team Resilience78c1,674$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.1411254.5%61 W · 51 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Rune Eaters18c1,637$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.78447.6%40 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Resilience42c1,609$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.111,19759.2%709 W · 488 L+63.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Team Resilience50c1,600$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80056949%279 W · 290 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Rune Eaters25c1,500$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.9945457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x63bc…92c5backed Rune Eaters32c1,500$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48310744.9%48 W · 59 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b1f…d6d5backed Team Resilience67c1,493$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.947955.7%44 W · 35 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe05…8b13backed Rune Eaters45c1,336$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005939%23 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc746…3943backed Rune Eaters20c1,314$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.696440.6%26 W · 38 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed Rune Eaters25c1,272$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.187770.1%54 W · 23 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+8.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb489…251cbacked Rune Eaters54c1,253$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.54633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Rune Eaters3c1,123$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2678516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed Team Resilience46c1,111$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.9412350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d02…0ff3backed Team Resilience71c1,110$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.427970.9%56 W · 23 L+11.1wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+17.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Team Resilience55c1,035$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.7548843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed Team Resilience48c1,021$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53128347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Team Resilience54c1,015$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.7329240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Team Resilience50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50026247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08a5…db43backed Team Resilience47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5307452.7%39 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Rune Eaters55c999.98$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9969235.3%244 W · 448 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Resilience45c975.53$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.8861256%343 W · 269 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Rune Eaters21c970$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.927637.3%103 W · 173 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Rune Eaters33c913.79$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.381,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bc2…077bbacked Team Resilience69c900$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2798450%42 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Resilience59c876.92$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.9296357.3%552 W · 411 L+48.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked Rune Eaters27c867.03$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.2219456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bb7…7028backed Rune Eaters54c839.84$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.576839.7%27 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Rune Eaters36c812.27$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.6767932.5%221 W · 458 L-27.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Resilience46c800$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43249455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…a5edbacked Rune Eaters28c800$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22440644.6%181 W · 225 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec4e…98afbacked Rune Eaters33c800$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2606275.8%47 W · 15 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick63cpaid+20.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3452…1ba0backed Team Resilience46c780.36$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.3918351.9%95 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5e8…fafcbacked Team Resilience49c763$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.138444%37 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf346…1b8ebacked Rune Eaters41c739.8$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30022339%87 W · 136 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Resilience64c733.5$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.921,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Rune Eaters42c719.84$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.591,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…f884backed Team Resilience71c701$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2018661.6%53 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Team Resilience49c664.95$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.128550.6%43 W · 42 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Resilience58c660.84$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.4987838.3%336 W · 542 L-42.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team Resilience56c656.76$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.7466545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Resilience62c650$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24753652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked Team Resilience47c642.59$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.5730854.9%169 W · 139 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Rune Eaters7c638.77$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6179159.4%470 W · 321 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Team Resilience58c638.72$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.847748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Rune Eaters56c614$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.8416550.3%83 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39da…f67fbacked Rune Eaters2c567.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked Rune Eaters14c551.89$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7512252.5%64 W · 58 L+17.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x266e…90f3backed Team Resilience68c535.92$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.149968.7%68 W · 31 L+12.4wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+9.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd5e4…2c05backed Team Resilience79c506.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3311777.8%91 W · 26 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick72cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Team Resilience43c501.3$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.187645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked Team Resilience74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.9121558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Team Resilience48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26051364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Team Resilience74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13032951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9417…8440backed Team Resilience50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2509455.3%52 W · 42 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Team Resilience41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29565441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Team Resilience79c482.31$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3433867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf072…d897backed Rune Eaters21c478.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012046.7%56 W · 64 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked Rune Eaters28c472.88$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2531953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Rune Eaters47c470$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.737047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3feb…7dfbbacked Rune Eaters25c438.75$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.97931.6%25 W · 54 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Resilience41c435.72$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.611,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed Team Resilience46c429.72$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.0517952.5%94 W · 85 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Resilience58c429$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.888938%338 W · 551 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Team Resilience44c420$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.912949.6%64 W · 65 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc182…1339backed Team Resilience48c414.63$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.6328846.5%134 W · 154 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Resilience42c413.69$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.9453444.4%237 W · 297 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3d3…bb0abacked Rune Eaters57c411$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.491844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.