Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump visit Texas by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe47e12af5a6a2cca5a69057a416507efd54bfce6e2932639dee7554faa9d6fb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 10c | 3,203$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.18 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 1c | 2,233$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 7c | 2,061$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.93 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 18c | 1,732$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.25 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b9c6backed No | 6c | 1,500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed No | 4c | 1,445$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 31c | 1,419$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.39 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 6c | 1,181$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c39…b7a6backed No | 9c | 1,088$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…0974backed No | 5c | 1,044$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 2c | 865.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…ef05backed No | 5c | 838.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557c…c583backed No | 13c | 764.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…a718backed No | 10c | 752.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e1…8290backed No | 18c | 736.18$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…5505backed No | 4c | 681.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked No | 11c | 681.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 6c | 663.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 17c | 430.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 28c | 419$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.32 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed No | 3c | 405.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 4c | 403.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x723f…3f61backed No | 3c | 400.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6039…9496backed No | 8c | 393.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…d0dcbacked No | 7c | 368.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3086…e5e1backed No | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…0687backed No | 8c | 330.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…1c05backed No | 6c | 322.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…e0c6backed No | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4e…25a6backed No | 8c | 302.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…62febacked No | 8c | 290.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…d345backed No | 8c | 256.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed No | 5c | 219.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 195.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 68c | 194$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 9c | 169.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 11c | 168.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…1a61backed No | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…7200backed No | 13c | 155.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed Yes | 79c | 152.04$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc05…0e08backed No | 10c | 112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 109$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82f…fe06backed No | 10c | 104$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2d…b371backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…884dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…4470backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26a0…dd23backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 68c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…2784backed No | 25c | 80.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 21c | 75.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fe…f9cbbacked No | 37c | 68.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265e…ebc3backed No | 20c | 60.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…f330backed No | 29c | 54.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…92b2backed Yes | 72c | 52.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 80c | 44.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 49c | 29.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…1377backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.