Champions League · resolved market
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4b7a0a70343f373d2d43177554bdf4ce72188b480d4af297cf72862ab49dae2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc919…a162backed Yes | 27c | 14,815$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 73c | 6,397$4,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.91 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 73c | 4,172$3,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.35 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…1c90backed Yes | 34c | 4,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 69c | 3,840$2,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.99 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…1276backed No | 73c | 3,000$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.93 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 73c | 2,149$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.25 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 63c | 1,500$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.79 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 36c | 1,400$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…b156backed No | 71c | 1,252$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…183ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…56f2backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6896…3682backed Yes | 21c | 950.07$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Yes | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 23c | 845.73$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.35 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 750$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.43 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 73c | 741.17$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.09 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Yes | 45c | 673.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb6…76e0backed Yes | 22c | 596.49$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 74c | 499.91$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 435.29$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.23 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…f087backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 68c | 234.04$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 26c | 230.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 288 | 40.3%116 W · 172 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661c…3b7bbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…2d68backed Yes | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 27c | 177.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…b72ebacked Yes | 30c | 170.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 25c | 167.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 74c | 159.27$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 10c | 128.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 258 | 59.7%154 W · 104 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…a4a9backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 29c | 96.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ea…158dbacked Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…6565backed Yes | 26c | 88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…f72cbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f1…74febacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…d5b8backed No | 75c | 71.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 64c | 58.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…8a79backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…2dfabacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe94…bb87backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 74c | 42.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 60 | 76.7%46 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 39.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…7197backed No | 75c | 37.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf73…4d4abacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked No | 75c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…a488backed No | 74c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-11-05?Yes won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.