Fifa International · resolved market
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe58d5a2b92cbee354930871f365467a8f60446348c1c2df78790123091e69c8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa18c…d792backed Yes | 46c | 1,250$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 240 | 58.8%141 W · 99 L | +19.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 48c | 1,001$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.09 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 56c | 952.34$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.74 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 54c | 721.35$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.08 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…b2e4backed Yes | 58c | 534.61$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 58c | 491.75$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.32 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes | 57c | 456.36$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.32 | 165 | 40.6%67 W · 98 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 43c | 395.38$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.01 | 341 | 51%174 W · 167 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ec…06d3backed Yes | 43c | 377.03$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.91 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 41c | 317.1$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.44 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 51c | 244.69$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 51c | 227$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked No | 50c | 198$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265c…198fbacked Yes | 46c | 182.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 47c | 177.73$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e14…7c43backed No | 57c | 164.7$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 50c | 158.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…b5f8backed No | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 200 | 17%34 W · 166 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…1857backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 142.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 43c | 131.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 30c | 121.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 53c | 95.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 31c | 93.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…ff6cbacked Yes | 51c | 83.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 52c | 83.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…bf23backed No | 62c | 81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 38c | 81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 40c | 78.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…6f88backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 49c | 67.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 50c | 51.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 624 | 52.7%329 W · 295 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc349…82d7backed Yes | 45c | 50.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…bed6backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…ae4ebacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 165 | 49.1%81 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…5a3dbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 51c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 46.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615c…e752backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 50c | 41.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed No | 31c | 36.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 471 | 27.8%131 W · 340 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 32.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…d2c9backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 31.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 30.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…e99bbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 138 | 55.1%76 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Yes | 57c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 709 | 48.9%347 W · 362 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b7…5ea6backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e8…ef2bbacked Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…62c8backed No | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 96 | 63.5%61 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17c…3b29backed Yes | 48c | 20.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e61…1678backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +82%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Uruguay finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.