NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe64830efdc45b94cf78fc57b61e7bd7568cd0403a7537c10c78f07ad038edc24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 76ersof Warriors, 76ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Warriors | 49c | 8,205$4,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,020.66 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…2643backed 76ers | 51c | 7,000$3,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,430 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Warriors | 52c | 5,355$2,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,784.44 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed 76ers | 46c | 5,000$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,723.3 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed 76ers | 45c | 3,675$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.35 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked 76ers | 51c | 3,300$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617 | 270 | 52.6%142 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed 76ers | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…0924backed Warriors | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.98 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…8e70backed Warriors | 56c | 2,454$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.24 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -12.4wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Warriors | 55c | 1,922$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.03 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors | 49c | 1,587$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.57 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked 76ers | 45c | 1,300$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed 76ers | 50c | 1,242$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.87 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Warriors | 50c | 1,232$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.87 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed 76ers | 51c | 1,110$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.9 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Warriors | 55c | 947.27$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked 76ers | 45c | 947.27$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Warriors | 49c | 798$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.02 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed 76ers | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f95…6972backed 76ers | 50c | 291.16$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.58 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Warriors | 49c | 287.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.12 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 50c | 270.41$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Warriors | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Warriors | 49c | 205.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed 76ers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Warriors | 51c | 172.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54b…8a63backed 76ers | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Warriors | 56c | 139.64$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 279 | 43%120 W · 159 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed 76ers | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Warriors | 23c | 122.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Warriors | 57c | 117.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 53c | 111.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Warriors | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed 76ers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…0815backed 76ers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed 76ers | 45c | 99.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Warriors | 56c | 98.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Warriors | 52c | 87.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a6abacked Warriors | 49c | 74.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed 76ers | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee0…e158backed Warriors | 55c | 63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…7adebacked 76ers | 46c | 54.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Warriors | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed 76ers | 48c | 49.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Warriors | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked 76ers | 52c | 45.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfedd…32c4backed Warriors | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed 76ers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 245 | 66.9%164 W · 81 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…f955backed 76ers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…87d5backed 76ers | 49c | 39.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Warriors | 54c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed 76ers | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Warriors | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked 76ers | 45c | 33.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3948…f81bbacked 76ers | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed 76ers | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Warriors | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 470 | 45.1%212 W · 258 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed 76ers | 48c | 28.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed 76ers | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Warriors | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Warriors | 53c | 23.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed 76ers | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Warriors | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Warriors | 50c | 20.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Warriors | 56c | 18.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-0.5)76ers won
- 76ers vs. Warriors76ers won
- 76ers vs. Warriors: 1H Moneyline76ers won
- 76ers vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5Under won
- 76ers vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5Under won
- Andre Drummond: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- De'Anthony Melton: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)76ers won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)76ers won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)76ers won
- VJ Edgecombe: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.