Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Execration (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7e402e5b05e4dbe3c3e7fc3e26659a16b0890c4feae8c4a61e02469cb0b2141
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Execration | 13c | 13,086$1,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,748.76 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Execration | 24c | 6,001$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.07 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Execration | 16c | 6,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.97 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Execration | 10c | 5,978$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.85 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Execration | 29c | 4,945$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.61 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24c…8f5bbacked Execration | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2787…e0c4backed Team Falcons | 80c | 1,819$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.91 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Execration | 11c | 1,750$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…daeebacked Execration | 15c | 1,667$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a5…729bbacked Execration | 5c | 1,660$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Execration | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.96 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Execration | 17c | 1,200$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.6 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 1,137$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.82 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Execration | 17c | 1,052$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.78 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7b…c33ebacked Execration | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…3984backed Execration | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Execration | 23c | 902.49$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.34 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6df…b84ebacked Execration | 5c | 871.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Execration | 15c | 864.55$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Execration | 21c | 779.14$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.05 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Execration | 19c | 693.87$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.35 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…092ebacked Team Falcons | 77c | 644.99$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.35 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Execration | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Execration | 12c | 599.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd5…81b0backed Execration | 20c | 563.21$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.71 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8808…b2c4backed Execration | 15c | 538.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Execration | 11c | 500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccb…e4eabacked Execration | 5c | 440$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Execration | 6c | 433.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…96f1backed Execration | 9c | 424.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Execration | 20c | 402.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Execration | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Execration | 7c | 390$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Execration | 25c | 383.1$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.78 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Execration | 16c | 368.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Execration | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Execration | 16c | 306.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…01f2backed Execration | 6c | 249.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Execration | 23c | 221.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Execration | 12c | 214$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Execration | 18c | 202.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Execration | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ed…3ae6backed Execration | 25c | 174.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Execration | 10c | 174.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Execration | 17c | 169.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd99e…8102backed Execration | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…895dbacked Execration | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Team Falcons | 68c | 147.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…7fa0backed Execration | 13c | 144.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…2afcbacked Execration | 21c | 141$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Team Falcons | 70c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Execration | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Execration | 17c | 123.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Execration | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d01…9b25backed Team Falcons | 75c | 113.16$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…16e3backed Execration | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Execration | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7f…361fbacked Execration | 18c | 110.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…07f2backed Execration | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee5…ac96backed Execration | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…7477backed Execration | 19c | 104.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…0b89backed Execration | 18c | 102$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Execration | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ce…cc10backed Execration | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…e91bbacked Execration | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Team Falcons | 77c | 84.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Execration | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…95d4backed Execration | 17c | 76.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Execration | 30c | 58.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17dc…7306backed Team Falcons | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…56c0backed Execration | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…3e80backed Execration | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Team Falcons | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…d40ebacked Team Falcons | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.