TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 216.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,730
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,730 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under52c930.93$484 inLost-$4848,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over54c790$427 inWon+$363.42,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under52c244.62$127 inLost-$126.949,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over40c125$50 inWon+$752,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under52c104.63$55 inLost-$54.52,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3c9…2669backed Over53c100$53 inWon+$476847.1%32 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf71…9f1cbacked Over41c80$33 inWon+$47.211051.8%57 W · 53 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over46c54.63$25 inWon+$29.51,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Over44c51.79$23 inWon+$28.9229351.9%152 W · 141 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over50c50$25 inWon+$2578648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Over45c43.96$20 inWon+$24.1853839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over49c37.72$18 inWon+$19.242,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8a3…61debacked Over54c37.04$20 inWon+$17.046478.1%50 W · 14 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+25.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over38c34.22$13 inWon+$21.284,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95be…9968backed Under59c30.51$18 inLost-$1833552.8%177 W · 158 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Under60c28.45$17 inLost-$17.0720352.2%106 W · 97 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.