NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41822bb56bdde7dc9f9c1f14558796d1e8fa016a5f9bf27e9b52c400023ccb3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0865…3dffbacked Celtics | 52c | 8,258$4,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,929.75 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors | 48c | 8,191$3,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,896.78 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Warriors | 44c | 5,329$2,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,344.93 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors | 48c | 4,207$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.38 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Celtics | 56c | 2,407$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.93 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 8c | 2,405$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Celtics | 57c | 2,114$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.99 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Warriors | 45c | 1,973$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 44c | 1,524$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Celtics | 56c | 1,364$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.29 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Warriors | 45c | 1,110$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79b0…ea3bbacked Celtics | 56c | 900$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 43c | 824$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.32 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Celtics | 56c | 623.45$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.53 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…3858backed Celtics | 56c | 589.29$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.29 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics | 56c | 561$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.84 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Celtics | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Celtics | 46c | 496.5$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.11 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Warriors | 46c | 462$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.52 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Celtics | 51c | 402$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.02 | 470 | 45.1%212 W · 258 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Celtics | 56c | 332.65$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.6 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Celtics | 54c | 330.8$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.17 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4a…2c89backed Warriors | 45c | 270$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9325…adafbacked Warriors | 49c | 256.36$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Celtics | 56c | 179.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.29 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Celtics | 55c | 154.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Warriors | 45c | 130.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 383 | 50.4%193 W · 190 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fad…374cbacked Warriors | 45c | 110.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Warriors | 45c | 100.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Celtics | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Warriors | 53c | 99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Celtics | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…4611backed Celtics | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Warriors | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Celtics | 54c | 79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Celtics | 56c | 74.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Celtics | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Celtics | 53c | 66.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Celtics | 55c | 65.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Celtics | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Warriors | 45c | 56.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Celtics | 54c | 53.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Celtics | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Warriors | 48c | 51.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…3d4cbacked Celtics | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Celtics | 55c | 48.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Warriors | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Warriors | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Celtics | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…ae06backed Celtics | 55c | 32.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Celtics | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Warriors | 46c | 28.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba7e…ae58backed Celtics | 56c | 28.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…dce7backed Warriors | 45c | 26.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Celtics | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Warriors | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Celtics | 56c | 25.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 307 | 43%132 W · 175 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Warriors | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…790bbacked Warriors | 58c | 21.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Celtics | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)this page
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Celtics vs. WarriorsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 210.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 211.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 212.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 213.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 214.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 216.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Moses Moody: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.