NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11a992a27c19b113ccf7f75ff4f2e07d02ce6afdef81e038476519c33e67c900
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Warriors | 38c | 4,095$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.92 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Celtics | 56c | 2,241$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.83 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics | 62c | 2,132$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.88 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Celtics | 62c | 1,990$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.32 | 184 | 56%103 W · 81 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 44c | 1,790$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.59 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors | 46c | 1,144$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.27 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Warriors | 38c | 874.31$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.5 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 53c | 864.34$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Warriors | 39c | 674.63$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.59 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…b6ffbacked Celtics | 61c | 582$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.98 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Warriors | 43c | 512.57$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.1 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…1080backed Warriors | 39c | 495$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.05 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Celtics | 55c | 361.91$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.01 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Celtics | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 45c | 282.24$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 43c | 281.73$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.18 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Celtics | 63c | 239$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.43 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Celtics | 62c | 192.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Warriors | 39c | 180$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Celtics | 57c | 170.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Warriors | 43c | 141.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…55eabacked Celtics | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Warriors | 39c | 98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Warriors | 40c | 83.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Celtics | 61c | 81.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Celtics | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b15…f827backed Celtics | 62c | 80.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Celtics | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Warriors | 50c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Celtics | 62c | 67.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Warriors | 38c | 65.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…de71backed Warriors | 30c | 55.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Warriors | 40c | 55.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Celtics | 57c | 53.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 470 | 45.1%212 W · 258 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392f…4428backed Celtics | 63c | 52.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Warriors | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 383 | 50.4%193 W · 190 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Warriors | 41c | 48.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Celtics | 63c | 42.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Celtics | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Warriors | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Celtics | 62c | 32.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Warriors | 38c | 32.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Celtics | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Celtics | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Celtics | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…fe8bbacked Celtics | 63c | 25.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Warriors | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 215 | 53.5%115 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Celtics | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 384 | 53.4%205 W · 179 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)this page
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Celtics vs. WarriorsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 210.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 211.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 212.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 213.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 214.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 216.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Moses Moody: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.