NBA · resolved market
Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea05b8f329361a4b29e97e6210f2fca25184841b35557b0d73f7f913f9d5f4d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 63c | 1,081$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.54 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 61c | 884.42$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.34 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…bc94backed No | 62c | 574.82$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.89 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea91…2a69backed Yes | 38c | 527.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2cf9backed Yes | 38c | 497.13$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked No | 47c | 480.06$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.63 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 53c | 471$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.37 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1078…b0a2backed Yes | 40c | 383.03$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.03 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2163…b77fbacked Yes | 52c | 311.22$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68ac…9cafbacked Yes | 38c | 186.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…9f88backed Yes | 37c | 178.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3273…0c24backed Yes | 38c | 129$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…6ffabacked No | 62c | 104.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Yes | 40c | 100.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.22 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 60c | 88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb58a…71a1backed Yes | 38c | 80.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked No | 48c | 80.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Yes | 31c | 80.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ff7cbacked Yes | 37c | 80.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b5…4388backed Yes | 38c | 80.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3113…223ebacked Yes | 37c | 73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96a8…1932backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…33f3backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…93d7backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 216 | 72.2%156 W · 60 L | +28.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…5599backed Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 61c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 11.5this page
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Celtics vs. WarriorsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 210.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 211.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 212.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 213.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 214.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 216.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Moses Moody: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.