TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,120
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,120 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a35…6387backed Under0c44,384$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under49c2,234$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.833,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over48c2,065$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.252,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c1,969$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.159,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under46c1,898$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.324,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Over54c1,787$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.4113464.2%86 W · 48 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Under51c1,428$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.871,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under58c1,243$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.941,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under62c1,164$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.682,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Over38c813.98$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.751354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over56c780.97$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.058,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under50c710$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3552,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Under44c709.32$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.5417233.7%58 W · 114 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over43c630$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.41,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over41c490$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.11,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over79c316$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.363,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Over37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2717035.9%61 W · 109 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over58c224.14$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.033,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aab…773bbacked Under35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over37c135.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.132,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over77c130.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3436453%193 W · 171 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629255.4%51 W · 41 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under15c79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.852,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under23c66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.981,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf48e…1e01backed Over42c64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9410444.2%46 W · 58 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Over45c59.96$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1453839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under58c57.88$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.694,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9a…7ef9backed Over44c56.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.223644.4%16 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over58c54.37$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8988057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2678648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under46c40.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.315,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbfb…e371backed Under43c32.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.01616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under65c31.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.591,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over41c31.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3319051.6%98 W · 92 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Over79c31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5139055.6%217 W · 173 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Under65c30.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8457657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Over43c30.14$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1837949.3%187 W · 192 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23c2…3fc7backed Over50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152050%10 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under60c25.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.041,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under57c23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.113,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3f1…de71backed Over70c15.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.511752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Over78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.366646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.