NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 214.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90780b20478a481a9382cba82df5a4351a57ae5b25583cfc7b3fa3eaf00ab403
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 55c | 4,850$2,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,667.74 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 2,872$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 54c | 1,511$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.14 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Over | 44c | 1,099$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.44 | 316 | 44.6%141 W · 175 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 37c | 628.14$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.66 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Under | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 560.05$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 46c | 528.27$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.27 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 54c | 485.99$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.44 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 425.37$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.45 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 63c | 420.61$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.46 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 47c | 295.08$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.39 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 41c | 278.9$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.55 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Under | 54c | 240.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.14 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Over | 47c | 167.79$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 14c | 142.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 31%81 W · 180 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 46c | 142$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 44c | 109.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 48c | 105.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 59c | 79.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 65c | 77.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf926…fb21backed Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 14c | 73.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 55c | 68.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 63c | 63.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…dd5abacked Over | 48c | 62.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 55c | 58.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 469 | 40.3%189 W · 280 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -20.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 44c | 42.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…dd82backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 67c | 41.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd075…3d1fbacked Over | 42c | 39.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 44c | 29.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 62c | 26.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…c05ebacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 55c | 23.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 55c | 22.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 53c | 19.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 214.5this page
- Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Celtics vs. WarriorsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 210.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 211.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 212.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 213.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 216.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Moses Moody: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Sam Hauser: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.