World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the October meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe84fe1887a4b01ad9bd837a4a35d7ea540110af706f5c4010192ab9ddde144ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 8c | 8,225$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 8c | 2,330$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 39c | 2,042$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.04 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 7c | 1,541$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 10c | 1,320$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.76 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 32c | 1,254$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.57 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 6c | 1,210$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 6c | 888$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 862.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76dcbacked Yes | 23c | 811$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 20c | 739.71$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.08 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…0e44backed Yes | 7c | 679.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 35c | 621$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.7 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 418.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 13c | 375.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 56c | 340$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.88 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed1…cc85backed Yes | 30c | 336.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…a16abacked Yes | 30c | 284.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 54c | 274$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…41b2backed Yes | 11c | 261.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 74c | 219.7$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 212.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…5652backed Yes | 5c | 207.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…b2bfbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…b2cdbacked Yes | 50c | 198.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 36c | 160.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736c…2b16backed Yes | 14c | 141.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e7…5e49backed Yes | 38c | 132.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca2…d884backed Yes | 19c | 91.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…b7d6backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…91d9backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…7831backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 64c | 30.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…77b0backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 63c | 29.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…e688backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the October meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the October meeting?Yes won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.