Fifa International · resolved market
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea9f73206aa1aa05bebc487be63b0edc1bcc8d05fe6d24d34b2d269438920453
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff8…5fd6backed Yes | 45c | 991.2$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a58…b808backed Yes | 32c | 991.2$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.18 | 228 | 35.5%81 W · 147 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 42c | 840.17$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.1 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 42c | 631.12$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.41 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 54c | 535.46$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.31 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 58c | 373.54$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.48 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 41c | 342.54$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.38 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 47c | 278$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.98 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 34c | 237$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 44c | 187.58$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 45c | 185$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 46c | 155.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 42c | 150.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 212 | 39.6%84 W · 128 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 125$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.9 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 43c | 120$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 57c | 115$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 39c | 110.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed No | 79c | 103.79$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 96.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 59c | 76.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 33c | 72.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 43c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 48c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 53c | 69.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 66c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…b385backed Yes | 63c | 54.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 32c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 272 | 55.9%152 W · 120 L | +36.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 50c | 47.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -15.0wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fe…f0fbbacked Yes | 56c | 25.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…1733backed Yes | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?this page
- Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.