TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Islanders vs. Blue Jackets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Blue Jacketsof Islanders, Blue Jackets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$805,523
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$830,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $805,523 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 903 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x33f6…e0debacked Islanders45c200,002$90,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90,000.911668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ff…e56abacked Blue Jackets55c178,994$98,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,547.385749.1%28 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Blue Jackets55c44,847$24,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,008.8288151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Islanders48c29,740$14,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,376.511,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e4…f06fbacked Islanders44c22,000$9,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6801338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Blue Jackets64c17,213$11,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,143.5141850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa553…ef40backed Islanders49c16,000$7,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,825.51580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+51.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Islanders76c15,888$12,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,077.943754.1%20 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Blue Jackets56c14,551$8,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,402.561050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Islanders44c13,110$5,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,768.3351452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Blue Jackets19c12,994$2,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,488.785464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Blue Jackets56c12,961$7,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,732.9111352.2%59 W · 54 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Blue Jackets37c11,664$4,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,347.9989636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Blue Jackets52c11,213$5,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,337.8738738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Islanders46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,60014940.9%61 W · 88 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Islanders44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.9825449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Islanders44c9,349$4,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,109.041,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Blue Jackets55c8,837$4,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,995.071,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Islanders46c8,360$3,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,834.141,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Blue Jackets57c7,007$3,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,042.855853.4%31 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Blue Jackets55c6,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7004440.9%18 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Blue Jackets51c5,715$2,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,800.3662951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63b9…0de2backed Islanders45c5,362$2,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,413.07250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc0…59f0backed Blue Jackets56c5,076$2,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,233.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x264c…8250backed Blue Jackets56c5,004$2,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.84475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Blue Jackets55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Blue Jackets30c5,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50026344.5%117 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a5…a6e0backed Blue Jackets56c4,919$2,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,164.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+100.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4819…4afebacked Islanders45c4,633$2,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,084.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Islanders44c4,545$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00060337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Blue Jackets55c4,500$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,02524654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Blue Jackets55c4,411$2,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,984.9121850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Blue Jackets56c4,100$2,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80422946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9397…ceb4backed Blue Jackets56c4,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7602352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Blue Jackets54c3,480$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600.861959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Islanders45c3,333$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Blue Jackets55c3,240$1,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.6126955.8%150 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Blue Jackets34c3,011$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,993.682,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Islanders45c3,000$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.91,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Blue Jackets54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3806555.4%36 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Blue Jackets56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32028652.4%150 W · 136 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Blue Jackets60c2,485$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.692,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Islanders1c2,444$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.447450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Blue Jackets57c2,435$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.451,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Blue Jackets56c2,400$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.991,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Blue Jackets57c2,300$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98983652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Blue Jackets60c2,179$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.4957157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x040d…3527backed Islanders45c2,093$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.43444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Blue Jackets55c2,041$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.5647951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Islanders46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9204450%22 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Blue Jackets55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.9797651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Islanders45c1,990$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.4484953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Blue Jackets55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.1811953.8%64 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Islanders44c1,818$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.9252050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Blue Jackets52c1,789$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.2813655.1%75 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd40b…429abacked Islanders49c1,638$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.64259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Islanders49c1,553$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.956253.2%33 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Islanders46c1,543$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71026946.1%124 W · 145 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Islanders45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67586649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed Islanders45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Islanders44c1,500$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66036038.6%139 W · 221 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Blue Jackets49c1,429$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.0795049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Islanders35c1,419$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Islanders45c1,414$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.2519051.1%97 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Blue Jackets55c1,200$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54689249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Blue Jackets55c1,175$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.8560249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Blue Jackets22c1,145$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.1643742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Blue Jackets54c1,100$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50632251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Blue Jackets55c1,056$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.23,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96dc…122fbacked Blue Jackets55c1,038$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.11250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83fd…90d1backed Islanders45c1,038$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.12774.1%20 W · 7 L+7.0wins+0.26per pick48cpaid+60.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Islanders43c1,038$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.251,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4293…039ebacked Islanders45c1,028$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.62917.2%5 W · 24 L-9.9wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-70.2%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xa911…18e7backed Blue Jackets55c1,028$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.63855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54d1…8b02backed Islanders45c1,025$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.254858.3%28 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3ea…051dbacked Blue Jackets55c1,025$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.252766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+56.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4eb5…f2f7backed Islanders45c1,024$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.82853.6%15 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x569f…89b7backed Blue Jackets55c1,024$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.81844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18b0…5ddebacked Blue Jackets55c1,022$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.92842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb8f…ca52backed Islanders45c1,022$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.94845.8%22 W · 26 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x128d…c7aabacked Blue Jackets21c1,020$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2d7…da62backed Islanders49c1,018$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018840.4%76 W · 112 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a9…f648backed Islanders45c1,018$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.13855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaa8…8d56backed Blue Jackets55c1,018$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.12857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2151…6a44backed Islanders45c1,014$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.34346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4dc…ac68backed Blue Jackets55c1,014$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.33764.9%24 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+36.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x94d5…5f3abacked Blue Jackets55c1,013$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.852254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e2…efd3backed Islanders45c1,013$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.853658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Islanders1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x596f…248abacked Islanders46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Blue Jackets56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Islanders44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4405632.1%18 W · 38 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43c5…1df0backed Islanders79c1,000$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab3a…5715backed Blue Jackets55c998$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.12955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc978…2f14backed Islanders45c998$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.15054%27 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08f7…8db4backed Islanders45c997$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.653852.6%20 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde1e…6509backed Blue Jackets55c997$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.652352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d82…f177backed Blue Jackets55c987$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.151154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79e3…fecdbacked Islanders45c987$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.152070%14 W · 6 L+4.4wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+60.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x225e…2dd4backed Blue Jackets55c986$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.71866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+41.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.